玻璃：下游开工延迟尝试逢高做空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for the glass industry [2] Core Viewpoints - Despite the lack of positive fundamental improvements, the glass futures price declined to a previous low, leading to strong bottom - fishing sentiment among funds. However, considering the poor fundamentals, the upside potential of glass is expected to be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies or sell call options should be monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Investment Strategy - The main strategy is to short on rallies. The reasons are that the glass fundamentals are still poor, with increased supply, rising inventory, delayed downstream start - up, and cost - related pressures. Although there are factors such as the cost increase of fuels due to the US - Iran conflict, the overall situation does not support a significant price increase [2] Market Review - Price - As of March 6, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,050 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,090 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) in East China. The glass 05 contract closed at 1,087 yuan/ton last Friday, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] Market Review - Basis and Spread - Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was -27 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), and the 05 - 09 spread was -107 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton). As of March 6, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,242 yuan/ton) and the glass futures price (1,087 yuan/ton) was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [11][15] Profit - For the natural gas - based process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -338 yuan/ton (-22 yuan/ton). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,174 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -124 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton). For the petroleum coke - based process, the cost was 1,094 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -4 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [19] Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 148,335 tons/day (+1,200 tons/day), and there were 210 production lines in operation. There were also various changes in production lines such as cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [21][23] Inventory - As of March 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 79.637 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 13.986 million weight boxes (+548,000 weight boxes), in Central China was 10.12 million weight boxes (+565,000 weight boxes), in East China was 14.461 million weight boxes (+521,000 weight boxes), in South China was 10.566 million weight boxes (+600,000 weight boxes), in Southwest China was 13.95 million weight boxes (+300,000 weight boxes), the inventory in Shahe factories was 4.74 million weight boxes (+240,000 weight boxes), and in Hubei factories was 7.05 million weight boxes (+760,000 weight boxes) [25] Deep - processing - On March 5, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 95% (+18%). On March 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 33.7% (+14.4%). At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (-2.95 days) [31] Demand - Automotive - In January, China's automobile production was 2.45 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 846,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 0 units; the sales volume was 2.346 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 926,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 units. The retail volume of new energy passenger cars in January was 596,000 units, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [34][35] Demand - Real Estate - In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 18%; the new construction area was 53.13 million m² (-19%); the construction area was 38.24 million m² (-47%); the commercial housing sales area was 94 million m² (-17%). From February 26 to March 1, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.42 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 1,651% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In December, the real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [49] Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,242 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton), and the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 05 contract was -17 yuan/ton (-48 yuan/ton) [51][53] Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,315 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -83 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton); the cost of the joint production process was 1,658 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -3 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton). The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,014 yuan/ton (-11 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 400 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [57][58] Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 16,100 tons), including 432,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons) and 374,700 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 6,800 tons). The loss volume was 123,200 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,320 pieces (a week - on - week increase of 396 pieces). As of March 6, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.9472 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons), including 919,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons) and 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons) [68] Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 408,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 345,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash last week was 93.32%, a week - on - week increase of 32.2%. In January, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.9 days [72][77]