量化观市：内扩外滞，顺周期动量与价值占优

• The report tracks the performance of major market indices, noting that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices had weekly changes of -1.54%, -1.07%, -3.44%, and -3.64%, respectively[13] - The report highlights the performance of various industry indices, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading with a 7.18% increase, followed by coal (3.50%) and utilities (2.88%), while the media sector experienced the largest decline at -6.96%[13] - The report discusses the rotation strategy for micro-cap stocks, noting that the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" is 2.53, which is above its 243-day moving average of 1.95, and the 20-day closing price slope of micro-cap stocks is positive at 0.14%, while the Mao Index slope is negative at -0.25%[17][18] - The report mentions that the M1 indicator's 6-month moving average has declined, leading to a mid-term rotation strategy shift from micro-cap stocks to the Mao Index[17] - The report evaluates the risk control signals for micro-cap stocks, noting that the volatility congestion rate is -2.53% and the 10-year government bond yield is 2.03%, both within controllable risk ranges[17] - The report provides a summary of the macroeconomic environment, highlighting the Chinese government's economic goals and policies, including a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and a continuation of the 4% deficit rate and special government bond issuance framework[3][38] - The report discusses the global macroeconomic environment, noting the impact of geopolitical tensions and inflation risks, including the Middle East conflict and its effect on energy prices, and the mixed economic data from the US[4][39] - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in upstream resource stocks (oil, gold, industrial metals) and using high-dividend assets as a base to hedge against global macroeconomic volatility[4][39] - The report tracks the performance of quantitative stock selection factors, noting that value (20.68%), volatility (15.30%), and technical (9.22%) factors performed well, while consensus expectations and growth factors were relatively weak[55] - The report discusses the performance of convertible bond selection factors, noting that convertible bond valuation and underlying stock value achieved higher IC averages[66]