长江期货养殖产业周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Pig Market: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure. In the short term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium to long term, the supply from July to October will gradually tighten, but the price increase is limited [6][57]. - Egg Market: The supply pressure persists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. In the short term, the egg price increase is limited, and in the medium to long term, the supply pressure needs time to clear [8][82]. - Corn Market: The tight supply - demand situation supports the price, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the price is strong, while in the medium to long term, the price increase space is restricted, and there may be a phased correction risk [8][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock View Summary - Pig: The supply pressure remains, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The supply in 2026 is generally loose, with high pressure in the first half of the year and a marginal decrease in supply from July to October. The short - term pig price is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term price increase is limited [6][57]. - Egg: The supply pressure remains, and the futures price rebound is restricted. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply pressure needs time to clear. The short - term egg price increase is limited [8][82]. - Corn: The supply - demand is tight, supporting the price, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term price is strong, and the medium - to - long - term price increase space is restricted [8][112]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - Spot and Futures: As of March 6, the national spot price was 10.29 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of 2605 was 11160 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan/ton from last week. The futures price followed the spot price to fluctuate and decline, and the basis weakened [6][57]. - Supply: In 2025, the production capacity in December was above the normal level, and the production capacity reduction slowed down in January 2026. The supply in 2026 is generally loose, with high pressure in the first half of the year and a marginal decrease in supply from July to October. The planned slaughter in March increased, the average slaughter weight continued to rise slightly, and the secondary fattening volume increased [6][57]. - Demand: The slaughter rate and volume increased slightly, but it was the off - season, and the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly. The slaughter enterprises were in a loss state, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [6][57]. - Cost: The price of piglets decreased slightly, the price of sows was stable, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased losses, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs decreased [6][57]. - Weekly Summary: In March, the supply exceeded demand, and the pig price was under pressure. In the short term, it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium to long term, the supply from July to October would gradually tighten, but the price increase was limited [6][57]. - Strategy Suggestion: The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong. Wait for the rebound of 05 and 07 to go short; be cautious about shorting 09; before the production capacity is effectively reduced, breeding enterprises can hedge at high prices for 11 and 01 [6][57]. 3.2.2 Egg - Spot and Futures: As of March 6, the average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of 2605 was 3389 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis weakened [8][82]. - Supply: The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, the supply base was high, and the number of newly - laid hens was stable. The number of old hens slaughtered increased, but the number of hens available for slaughter was small, and the supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly [8][82]. - Demand: After the festival, the demand for eggs increased significantly, but there was no new positive support in the future, and the increase was limited. The inventory in each link decreased, but the inventory in the circulation link was still at a high level [8][82]. - Weekly Summary: The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level. The short - term egg price increase was limited, and in the medium to long term, the supply pressure needed time to clear [8][82]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short term, beware of the callback risk after the demand is overdrawn, and do not chase the high. In the medium to long term, focus on the production capacity clearance rhythm and the actual demand recovery, and then make a layout when the supply - demand pattern improves [8][82]. 3.2.3 Corn - Spot and Futures: As of March 6, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2405 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of 2605 was 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis strengthened [88][112]. - Supply: The supply was tight. The snow and rain in North China affected the farmers' willingness to sell, and the sales progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year. The inventory in the four northern ports decreased slightly, and the market circulation grain was tight [8][112]. - Demand: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was strong, and the inventory was at a low level, with urgent replenishment needs. Feed enterprises were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming existing inventory and increasing the use of substitutes [8][112]. - Weekly Summary: In the short term, the tight supply - demand supported the price to run strongly. In the medium to long term, the supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price increase space was restricted [8][112]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the short term, go long at a low position lightly, and do not chase the high. In the medium to long term, take profits gradually at high prices and beware of the callback risk [8][112].