近端需求逐步释放基差走强：长江期货尿素周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea's near - end demand is gradually being released, and the basis is strengthening. The urea 05 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from agriculture and some industries is showing positive trends [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's futures price weakened, with the closing price of the urea 2605 contract on March 6th at 1830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.92% from last week. The spot price in the Henan market increased by 10 yuan/ton or 0.55% to 1821 yuan/ton [2][5]. - The basis of the urea main contract strengthened, with the main basis in the Henan market on March 6th at - 9 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis range from - 9 to 19 yuan/ton, approaching the flat - water state. The 5 - 9 spread of urea weakened, with the 5 - 9 spread on March 6th at - 13 yuan/ton, and the weekly range from - 15 to 25 yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 93.62%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 84.53%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points. The daily urea output was 21.97 tons. There are expectations of supply increase in the future [2][12]. Cost and Profit - The anthracite coal market had mainly rigid demand, and coal prices fluctuated slightly. As of March 5th, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, and that in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, with the price center remaining the same as last week. The mainstream urea price increased, and the urea production profit recovered [2][16]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the spring plowing approaches, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation continues to follow up. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.02%, an increase of 3.61 percentage points from last week, and the inventory decreased by 2.29 percentage points. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is gradually being released [2][18][22]. - Industrial demand: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 49.4%, a decrease of 6.19 percentage points from last week. The demand support from the panel market weakened [2][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 870,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons from last week and 396,000 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 264,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 2,860, equivalent to 57,200 tons, an increase of 1,031 receipts or 20,620 tons compared to the same period last year [2][29]. Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]