黑色：市场情绪升温黑色震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The futures market was bullish due to the Middle - East conflict, and the domestic macro - policy had a neutral impact on the market. Steel demand slowly recovered, and inventory was still accumulating. Raw material inventories showed different trends, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [3]. - Steel, coking coal, and iron ore are all expected to oscillate strongly. Steel is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and it is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival. Coking coal inventory is structurally differentiated, and coke production is at a low level with profits decreasing. Iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction, and the short - term driver is the restricted circulation of some varieties [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials performing better than finished products [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the energy and chemical sector in the futures market rose sharply [3][7] 03 Spot Price - The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [9] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profits deteriorated, and the valuation of rebar futures was low, being below the electric - arc furnace off - peak electricity cost [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand slowly recovered, but inventory was still accumulating. It is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of demand recovery [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Affected by production restrictions in North China, the molten iron output dropped significantly last week. Steel mill iron ore inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Iron ore shipments have recovered to a relatively high level, but the arrival volume in March is expected to be low, and iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased last week but was still at a low level. The total coking coal inventory continued to decline, with upstream mines accumulating inventory and downstream coking plants reducing inventory [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production hovered at a low level last week, and inventory accumulated in the middle and upstream. After the first round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits decreased [4][27] 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mill's on - paper profits decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The government work report set GDP growth at 4.5% - 5%, CPI increase at about 2%, urban survey unemployment rate at about 5.5%, and planned to create over 12 million new urban jobs. The deficit rate is planned to be about 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan are planned, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [35] - As of March 7, 2026, the Middle - East conflict has entered its eighth day, and the situation continues to escalate [35] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [35] - 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 360 million tons of coking capacity, and 470 million tons of cement clinker capacity in China have completed ultra - low emission transformation [35] - The net reduction of non - farm employment in the US in February was 92,000, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of about 55,000 - 60,000. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% [35] - As of the week ending February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 213,000, lower than the market expectation of 215,000 [35]