静待需求兑现，钢价震荡反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, steel prices may experience an opportunity for a volatile rebound. The core logic is that after the Spring Festival, downstream construction sites resume work intensively and infrastructure projects are accelerated, pushing steel demand into a seasonal period. Although the supply side will also increase, limited by the narrow profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is limited, laying the foundation for the inventory to reach its peak and decline. The policy signals released during the Two Sessions have provided some confidence to the market. The reference price range for rebar is 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it is 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton [3][47][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The main rebar contract reached a monthly high of 3,139 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a low of 3,005 yuan/ton, closing at 3,067 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.95%. The hot-rolled coil also declined, hitting a six - month low. Holiday factors led to the accumulation of industrial contradictions. With terminal construction sites shut down, demand weakened seasonally, while steel mill production remained stable. Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, inventory increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, rebar rebounded and stabilized after reaching the key level of 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price showed signs of stabilization at the end of the month. In March, with the convening of the Two Sessions, the macro - economic outlook improved, and combined with the seasonal increase in post - holiday demand, the low - level support for steel futures strengthened [8]. 3.2 Steel Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Recovery - In February, steel production was generally stable, but there was a differentiation between long - and short - process production. The blast furnace production was relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remaining around 80%. The electric furnace production contracted significantly, with the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces dropping sharply from 70.66% to 10.14%, and the capacity utilization rate decreasing from 55.71% to 7.35%. The short - process production decreased from 32.21 tons to 2.6 tons. The weekly production of rebar was 165 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous month, while the weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 310 tons, a slight increase of 0.4 tons. In March, steel production is expected to increase steadily. After the Two Sessions, steel mill production will accelerate, and overall molten iron production is expected to gradually recover to around 240 tons. The production of hot - rolled coil will be affected to some extent. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production will lead to a rapid increase in rebar production. However, limited by the profit situation, the production increase power is insufficient, and the overall production will be stable [13][14]. 3.2.2 Pay Attention to the Peak Rhythm in Mid - March - In February, steel inventory increased during the Spring Festival due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with significant differentiation among varieties. As of March 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,952 tons, an increase of 614 tons from the previous month and 91 tons more than the same period last year. Although the total inventory is at a relatively low level in recent lunar years, it is significantly higher year - on - year. The social inventory and mill inventory both increased. The social inventory reached 1,403 tons, an increase of 462 tons, mainly due to the stagnation of spot trading during the holiday and the passive inventory increase of traders. The mill inventory was 549 tons, an increase of 151 tons, mainly from the backlog of construction steel in the mills. The inventory of construction steel increased the most, with the total rebar inventory reaching 876 tons, an increase of 356 tons from the previous month and 15 tons more than the same period last year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 472 tons, an increase of 112 tons from the previous month and 43 tons more than the same period last year, reaching the highest level in recent lunar years. After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream construction sites resumed, and the inventory of construction steel is expected to reach its peak in mid - March [19]. 3.2.3 The Intensity of Demand Recovery Remains to be Observed - In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and all varieties declined. The national building materials trading volume decreased by 29.40% month - on - month. The rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou dropped to 10,300 tons, and the cement delivery volume dropped to 22 tons, both reaching new lows in recent years. The apparent demand data also weakened. The minimum apparent demand for rebar dropped to 41 tons, for hot - rolled coil to 247 tons, and for five major steel products to 537 tons. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate investment being poor. From January to February, the total land acquisition amount of key real estate enterprises decreased by 52.4% year - on - year, and the new construction and construction recovery were weak. The formation of physical work in infrastructure was lagging, with limited short - term pulling effect. In the manufacturing sector, passenger car sales decreased month - on - month, the production schedule of three major white goods in March decreased by 4% year - on - year, and external demand was affected by RMB appreciation and tariffs, with export orders declining marginally. In March, with the resumption of construction sites and the development of infrastructure, demand may improve marginally, but concerns in the real estate and manufacturing sectors still exist, and the intensity of the recovery remains to be observed [22]. 3.2.4 Positive and Steady Macroeconomic Policies, Real Estate Still at Risk - Fiscal policy continues to be positive, aiming at "increasing efforts and improving efficiency" by moderately expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure, and providing direct support to key areas such as technological innovation, green transformation, and people's livelihood. Tax cuts and fee reductions are also continued to stimulate market vitality. Monetary policy remains prudent and flexible, emphasizing "precision and effectiveness". It maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, deepens the use of structural tools, and guides financial resources to weak links such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and rural revitalization. - In the real estate sector, policies focus on "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihood". On the supply side, the primary goal is to "ensure the completion of buildings", promoting the resumption of work on suspended projects through special loans. Land supply is optimized, with high - inventory cities reducing supply and population - inflow cities increasing the supply of affordable housing land. On the demand side, policies are implemented according to the local situation. Core cities relax purchase and loan restrictions, lower down - payment ratios and interest rates to support rigid and improved housing needs. Third - and fourth - tier cities issue subsidies and increase the housing provident fund quota to stimulate consumption. At the same time, pre - sale funds are strictly managed to prevent the debt risks of real estate enterprises, and high - quality real estate enterprises are supported in financing to promote the industry's transition to a new development model. - The government report emphasizes infrastructure as an important means to stabilize growth and adjust the structure, focusing on the coordinated development of traditional and new infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure focuses on short - board areas such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy, while new infrastructure targets 5G base stations, data centers, and charging piles. The report also emphasizes the optimization of investment structure, strict control of inefficient and repetitive construction, and the improvement of the whole - life - cycle efficiency of infrastructure. - In the manufacturing sector, it is emphasized to focus on the real economy, promoting the high - end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. R & D investment is increased, enterprises are supported to break through key core technologies, and "little giants" and advanced manufacturing clusters are cultivated. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [24][26][27][28]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply side: In February, steel supply was generally stable, with blast furnace production remaining stable and the electric furnace operating rate dropping sharply, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Hot - rolled coil supply remained high due to the support of long - process production. In March, with the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production after the Spring Festival and the recovery of blast furnace operation after the Two Sessions, steel supply will gradually increase, but limited by the low profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is insufficient, and the supply will show a moderate recovery trend. - Demand side: In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weakened. The apparent consumption of rebar dropped to a minimum of 41 tons, showing typical seasonal off - peak characteristics. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate enterprises significantly reducing land acquisition, new construction and construction recovery being weak, and the formation of physical work in infrastructure being lagging. In the manufacturing sector, automobile sales declined month - on - month, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased. Looking forward to March, with the concentrated resumption of downstream construction sites and the development of infrastructure projects, demand will enter a seasonal recovery channel, but the drag from the real estate sector still exists, and concerns in the manufacturing sector remain. The intensity of demand recovery remains to be observed [47].