中东地缘剧变，铜测试关键支撑：沪铜周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the better - than - expected US economic data have weakened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the lower support and try to go long on dips. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive [8][9][86] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Economy - The geopolitical upheaval in Iran has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The US dollar index has strongly suppressed copper prices. The US ADP small non - farm payrolls data in February exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for the year have been weakened. The US non - farm payrolls report for February is to be released, and different results may have different impacts on the US dollar and commodities [12][16] - In February 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and below the boom - bust line. The GDP growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5% - 5%. The monetary policy will be moderately loose, and emerging industries are key development directions, which is beneficial to the demand for copper [17] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Copper concentrate supply: Although Iran's copper production accounts for a small proportion of the global total, the shipping blockage in the Strait of Hormuz and the spread of conflicts have increased the risk premium. Some mines in the Congo (DRC) and Peru have been affected by conflicts and natural disasters, affecting copper concentrate transportation. China's copper concentrate imports were high in 2025, but the growth rate slowed down at the beginning of 2026 [52] - Copper concentrate processing fees: The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, and the market expects the supply of copper concentrate in 2026 to be tight. The copper smelting industry is "anti - involution", and the industry association has proposed measures such as capacity control and resource reserve [53] - Electrolytic copper production: Affected by the shortage of copper ore raw materials and smelting maintenance, the electrolytic copper production in China in February decreased month - on - month. It is expected to increase in March [54] - Import: The import of unwrought copper and copper products in 2025 decreased year - on - year. The import of refined copper in December 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - Scrap copper supply: The growth of scrap copper supply has eased the pressure of raw material shortage, and the refined - scrap price difference has converged [54] 3.2.2 Demand - Green copper demand: Renewable energy systems have a much higher copper consumption than traditional power systems. Electric vehicles also have a large demand for copper [57] - Automobile demand: In January 2026, automobile sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales increased slightly year - on - year, and exports increased significantly [57] - Power demand: In 2025, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and the photovoltaic industry maintained a high - speed growth trend. In January 2026, China's new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity increased [57] - Home appliance demand: In January 2026, the production schedule of air - conditioners for domestic sales and exports increased year - on - year. In February, affected by policies and holidays, the production schedule decreased year - on - year [57] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of March 6, domestic and overseas copper inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory was at a nearly 11 - year high, and the COMEX copper inventory was still accumulating. The US may hoard copper for strategic reasons, and the effective circulation of copper inventory is expected to be tight [58] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate widely and fall under pressure to the 100,000 - yuan mark. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins and the policies of the Two Sessions gradually take effect, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually ease, the market sentiment may gradually improve, and the macro and micro factors may resonate [9][86] - It is recommended to try to go long on dips. Industrial buyers should purchase according to demand and increase inventory replenishment on dips. Sellers should wait for a rebound and hedge against the upper pressure level. In the long - term, due to the shortage of copper mines, the explosion of green copper demand, the national strategic resource security premium, and the intensification of Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [98,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [9][86]