招银国际每日投资策略-20260309

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of weakness in employment data, with February non-farm payrolls significantly below market expectations, influenced by extreme weather, healthcare strikes, and the overextension of strong January data [2] - Despite a decline in labor participation, the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating a softening job market, but wage growth remains robust, supporting consumer resilience [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to only cut rates once by 25 basis points in June, as rising oil prices complicate the dual mandate of stabilizing employment and reducing inflation [2] Industry Commentary - The capital goods sector saw strong export performance in February, with excavator and loader exports increasing by 37% and 34% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding expectations [5] - Domestic sales of excavators and loaders decreased by 42% and 14% year-on-year, attributed partly to the Spring Festival impact, but overall sales (domestic + exports) for the first two months showed a 13% increase for excavators and 28% for loaders, indicating a positive start to the year [5] - The strong export data supports an optimistic outlook for the earthmoving machinery sector, driven by rising commodity prices and increased capital expenditure in global mining [5] Company Commentary - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 38, as rising natural gas prices are expected to boost thermal coal prices, creating a buying opportunity [5] - The correlation between thermal coal prices and European natural gas prices has been historically strong, suggesting Yancoal will benefit from the current energy market dynamics [5] - ZTE Corporation (763 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price adjusted to HKD 38.6, despite a projected decline in net profit due to a significant drop in gross margin, primarily from an increased share of enterprise business [6]