短期震荡或有反弹，中期警惕回落风险：中辉期货钢材周报-20260309

Group 1: Report Overview - The title of the report is "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report", with a report date of March 6, 2026, and the analysts are Chen Weichang, Li Hairong, and Li Weidong [1] - The short - term trend of the steel market may have a rebound in shock, while the medium - term trend should be vigilant against the risk of decline [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The black sector is currently facing the situation of "weak macro expectations + weak industrial reality + strong external disturbances". The Two Sessions are being held, and the government work report for 2026 and the 15th Five - Year Plan continues the thinking since last year, which is difficult to provide continuous upward drive for the black sector. The current impact of the Iran situation on the black series is relatively limited, and the supply - demand of the black series is still weak, with high inventory in East China, and the later destocking speed is the key. The pig iron output has decreased month - on - month, and the contradiction of high raw material inventory may be further intensified [2] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, the futures market is supported by the meetings and external disturbances, with limited downward space, and there is even a possibility of further rebound. The medium - term trend depends on whether the demand can improve and whether the external disturbances end. Currently, the problem in the industrial chain is that both the raw material and steel inventories are high. If steel mills continue to resume production, the downstream demand is difficult to bear; if steel mills reduce production, the pressure on raw materials will increase. If the later market enters the supply - demand trading logic, it is easy to have a decline under the negative feedback expectation [3] Group 4: Steel Data Monthly Data (December 31, 2025) - The monthly output of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative output was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% - The monthly output of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative output was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% - The monthly output of steel was 115310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative output was 1446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% - The monthly steel import was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative import was 6060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% - The monthly steel export was 11300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative export was 119020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [7] Weekly Data (March 6, 2026) - The total weekly output of five major steel products was 7972,400 tons, a change of + 0.47%, and the cumulative output year - on - year was - 2.68% - The total weekly consumption was 6910,000 tons, a change of + 1270,000 tons, and the cumulative consumption year - on - year was - 1.52% - The total inventory was 19520,000 tons, a change of + 1058,900 tons, and the inventory year - on - year was + 4.93% [8] Group 5: Steel Production Profit - On March 5, 2026, in East China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 110, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was 6, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was 87, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was 20 - In North China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 23, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was - 52, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was - 125, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was - 42 - In Central China, the profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar was 175, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with valley - rate electricity was - 21, the profit of electric - furnace - produced rebar with flat - rate electricity was - 151, and the profit of blast - furnace - produced hot - rolled coil was 55 [23][24] Group 6: Steel Demand Real Estate - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year is 20% - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities is 60% [31] Export - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but the exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14,000,000 tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a short - term adverse effect on China's steel exports, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, forming an indirect benefit [39] Group 7: Steel Inventory and Basis Inventory - The rebar inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly, and the inventory level in Hangzhou is relatively high - The hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, which suppresses the basis [53][58] Basis - The rebar basis has declined this week but is still relatively high year - on - year. From the past rules, the basis is facing narrowing, and from the lunar calendar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and it may decline later - The hot - rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 0 with little change [53][58] Spread - The May - October spread of rebar fluctuates in the negative value range and strengthens slightly. Due to the high inventory level, it is difficult for the spread to continue to strengthen - The May - October spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 20 with little change [63][65]