申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market will shift from "universal rise" to the "alpha selection" stage. Stocks without performance support may remain weak, while sectors benefiting from policies and showing performance improvement may have sustainable opportunities. In the short term, geopolitical factors increase risk aversion, but in the long run, the stock index trend will return to domestic fundamentals and policies, and will return to a structural market as performance is gradually disclosed and Two - Sessions policies are implemented [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4646.00, 4632.80, 4583.00, and 4512.20 respectively, with increases of 27.80, 28.80, 26.40, and 26.20. The trading volumes were 60163.00, 5460.00, 20307.00, and 8128.00, and the open interest was 123388.00, 9986.00, 95703.00, and 42017.00 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 5992.00, 1457.00, - 950.00, and 464.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2990.00, 2988.00, 2977.40, and 2939.00, with increases of 8.60, 8.40, 9.00, and 8.00. The trading volumes were 27964.00, 2552.00, 9022.00, and 3957.00, and the open interest was 53774.00, 5023.00, 31604.00, and 16708.00. The changes in open interest were 193.00, 368.00, 352.00, and 382.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8322.60, 8283.20, 8150.80, and 7977.80, with increases of 96.40, 93.20, 90.40, and 85.00. The trading volumes were 81441.00, 7524.00, 34517.00, and 13041.00, and the open interest was 116622.00, 14486.00, 105478.00, and 53563.00. The changes in open interest were - 8804.00, 1337.00, - 5547.00, and - 1755.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8211.80, 8160.60, 8002.00, and 7802.00, with increases of 113.40, 110.40, 103.60, and 99.40. The trading volumes were 109207.00, 8223.00, 42061.00, and 16168.00, and the open interest was 153991.00, 19004.00, 121308.00, and 73810.00. The changes in open interest were - 12357.00, 457.00, - 2524.00, and - 494.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 13.20, - 2.00, - 39.40, and - 51.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 14.00, - 1.00, - 34.60, and - 54.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4660.44, 2992.70, 8360.33, and 8248.86 respectively, with increases of 0.27, 0.14, 0.62, and 0.95 [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, and telecommunications business had negative growth rates of - 1.87%, - 1.01%, and - 1.13% respectively, while industries such as industry, main consumption, and medical and health had positive growth rates of 1.07%, 1.50%, and 2.49% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 14.44, - 27.64, - 77.44, and - 148.24 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 18.69, - 32.69, - 81.09, and - 152.09 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were - 2.70, - 4.70, - 15.30, and - 53.70 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 1.45, - 2.45, - 12.85, and - 51.25 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 37.73, - 77.13, - 209.53, and - 382.53 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 53.57, - 88.17, - 221.57, and - 387.57 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 37.06, - 88.26, - 246.86, and - 446.86 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 41.12, - 95.72, - 243.12, and - 437.92 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4124.19, 14172.63, 8680.04, and 3229.30 respectively, with increases of 0.38%, 0.59%, 0.70%, and 0.38% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25757.29, 55620.84, 6740.02, and 23591.03 respectively, with increases of 1.72%, 0.62%, - 1.33%, and - 0.94% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - Diplomatic Statements: At the press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 8, Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that this year is a "big year" for Sino - US relations, and emphasized the principles for handling the Iranian situation and the stance on the Taiwan issue [2] - Market Events: This week, there are many important events in the global market. Domestically, the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will close on March 11 and 12 respectively, and economic data such as inflation, foreign trade, and financial credit will be released. Internationally, the Iranian situation is still a focus, and US inflation data will be released. North America enters daylight saving time, and many companies will disclose their financial reports [2] - AI Security: The open - source AI agent OpenClaw has security risks, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recommends checking public network exposure, permission configuration, and credential management [2] - Energy Situation: US Energy Secretary Wright said that a large oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and the resumption of normal shipping is approaching. The oil price increase is due to the uncertainty of the Iranian conflict, and energy transportation will continue through the Strait of Hormuz [2] 3.6 Industry Information - OpenClaw Support: The Longgang District of Shenzhen issued a draft of measures to support the development of OpenClaw and OPC, aiming to attract global developers and entrepreneurs [2] - Automobile Price Cuts: In February, the average price cut of new new - energy vehicles was 4.8 million yuan with an average price of 35.4 million yuan, and the average price cut of new conventional fuel vehicles was 4.6 million yuan with an average price of 37.1 million yuan [2] - OpenClaw Deployment: Multiple brokerage financial engineering teams released reports on how to deploy and use OpenClaw, but reminded that AI model conclusions are for reference only [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - Market Performance: The three major US indexes fell, and the stock index continued to rebound the previous day. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors led the rise, while the petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the decline. The market turnover was 2.22 trillion yuan [2] - Funding Situation: On March 5, the margin trading balance increased by 8.341 billion yuan to 2.633829 trillion yuan [2] - Market Outlook: As the annual and first - quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, and the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [2]