贵金属数据日报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, factors such as geopolitical games, inflation concerns, stagflation risks, and central bank gold purchases will continue to impact the precious metals market. After the market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest - rate cut expectations", if the market shifts to trading "stagflation", precious metal prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend [5][6]. - In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On March 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.89% to 1,140.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.38% to 21,740 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3.2 Impact Analysis - Positive factors: The potential further escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increasing the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the initial emergence of the US private - credit crisis risk, and the People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases for 16 consecutive months in February, which can ease the concerns of the previous continuous outflows of gold ETFs and support the gold price. For silver, the continuous decline in inventory limits the downside space of silver prices [5]. - Negative factors: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict drives up energy prices, increasing inflation risks, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and thus suppressing precious metal prices. Geopolitical and inflation risks may suppress silver demand and be negative for its industrial attributes [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - Price: On March 6, London gold spot was at $5,117.08/ounce, London silver spot was at $84.38/ounce, COMEX gold was at $5,125.40/ounce, COMEX silver was at $84.65/ounce, AU2604 was at 1,140.8 yuan/gram, AG2604 was at 21,740 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 1,138.7 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 21,380 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 5, the price of gold generally decreased by about 1.0%, and the price of silver generally increased by about 1.3% [4]. - Spread: On March 6, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.1 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 360 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.12 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 195 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.47, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 60.55, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.34 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 207 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 5, the change rates of spreads varied, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. 3.4 Position Data - On March 6, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,073.32 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15,761.62327 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 213,752 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 53,607 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 160,145 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 34,226 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 10,888 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 23,338 contracts. Compared with March 5, most positions increased [4]. 3.5 Inventory Data - On March 6, the SHFE gold inventory was 105,033 kilograms (unchanged from March 5), the SHFE silver inventory was 255,952 kilograms (down 6.15% from March 5), the COMEX gold inventory was 33,081,878 troy ounces (down 0.06% from March 5), and the COMEX silver inventory was 349,145,895 troy ounces (down 0.63% from March 5) [4]. 3.6 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On March 6, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90 (up 0.03% from March 5), the US dollar index was 98.96 (down 0.09% from March 5), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (down 0.28% from March 5), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15% (up 0.48% from March 5), the VIX was 29.49 (up 24.17% from March 5), the S&P 500 was 6,740.02 (down 1.33% from March 5), and NYWEX crude oil was $91.27 (up 15.72% from March 5) [4].