合成橡胶投资周报：炼厂原料供应短缺，BD/BR脉冲上涨-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the raw material supply of refineries in Northeast Asia, resulting in reduced plant loads and a pulse - like increase in olefin products such as BD and BR. In the short term, prices are expected to rise, but if the situation eases, prices may fall. In the long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 to 14,100 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the market is mainly due to concerns about shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced imported crude oil resources in East Asia after the continuous escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. The increase in production costs has led to higher offer prices, and downstream terminal procurement has significantly followed up [6]. Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data unclear] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. During the week, plants such as Sierbang and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical was slightly delayed, with no significant overall change in domestic production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: Most cis - butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, except that the high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Yanshan Petrochemical was not operating at full capacity [3]. Demand - Semi - steel tires: The market performance was relatively stable. After the Chinese New Year, there was regular replenishment in the domestic market. Individual dealer order fairs boosted the purchase demand of the distribution channels, and the retail purchase volume at the terminal increased significantly. Although exports were affected by the weakening markets in Europe and the Middle East, the EU has not yet implemented a temporary anti - dumping duty. The increase in raw material prices has led to increased cost pressure, and the expectation of price increases in the industry has risen, with some enterprises starting to withdraw price discounts for some specifications [3]. - All - steel tires: There was concentrated replenishment in the domestic market, and dealer order fairs boosted the enthusiasm for purchases. The overall purchase performance of the distribution channels was good. However, the export end was under significant pressure, with reduced shipments to the Middle East and European markets, and enterprises mainly focusing on Middle East orders faced greater pressure. The cost side was also supported by rising raw materials, narrowing the profit margins of enterprises, and there were increasing voices for price increases in the market. Subsequently, it is not ruled out that promotional policies will be tightened [3]. Inventory - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Some suppliers sold their goods at high prices, leading to a decrease in inventory. With a small amount of ships arriving at the port and normal consumption of downstream raw materials, the port inventory did not fluctuate much, and it is expected that the import volume in March may not increase significantly [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The market negotiation center increased, and transactions increased significantly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly. Last week, the combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 43,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80% [3]. Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 960 yuan/ton, in East China was - 860 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 860 yuan/ton [3]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was - 1190 yuan/ton, the NR - BR spread was 2075 yuan/ton, and the BR - SC price ratio was - 2.04% [3]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 2080 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 2795.35 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 739 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 5.23% [3]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - Geopolitical conflicts: The attack by the US and Israel on Iran led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and gold prices and violent fluctuations in global stock markets [3]. - Chinese government policies: The 2026 government work report set the GDP growth target at 4.5% - 5% and clearly focused on building emerging and future industries such as integrated circuits and low - altitude economy [3]. - US policy trends: The US plans to raise the global general tariff to 15% and nominate Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve [3]. - Economic data: China's manufacturing PMI in February fell to 49.0%, and the OECD warned that the issuance of government bonds by developed countries this year will reach a record high [3]. Investment Views - In the short term, prices are expected to rise. In the long - term, if the geopolitical situation eases, prices may fall, but in the medium - to - long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU layout [3].