玻璃，2026，酝酿大行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, glass has the supply - demand foundation to emerge from the industry trough and return to the normal price range. If there are positive policy benefits and demand improvement, the glass market may exceed market expectations [2]. - The reduction in glass consumption demand from the real - estate end due to the decrease in completion area is being replaced by consumption increments in other directions, and these increments are growing rapidly [6]. - In 2026, the supply of flat glass has significantly decreased and is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor for a major change in the glass market [7]. - Although the current spot and futures prices of flat glass are still at the bottom, with positive changes in supply - side and consumption - side data, glass has some conditions to emerge from the trough [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - side Analysis - The market generally believes that the demand for glass is weak, mainly due to the decline in real - estate new construction and completion areas since 2020. For example, in 2025, the real - estate completion area decreased by 18.1% compared to 2024 [2][3]. - However, the supply of flat glass does not directly correspond to the real - estate completion area. The consumption reduction in the real - estate end is being replaced by consumption increments in other directions, such as increased glass use per unit area in commercial and residential properties, home - improvement glass, agricultural glass greenhouses, and rural self - built houses [6]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - Supply Reduction Factors - The daily melting volume of float glass has significantly decreased. For example, in 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [8]. - The supply of common white glass in the float glass category has decreased as many glass production lines have been adjusted to produce ultra - white glass or colored glass due to long - term low prices and losses [10]. - Uncertain Supply Factors - Environmental Protection: Due to environmental protection requirements such as "coal - to - gas" and "petroleum coke - to - gas" conversions, the supply of flat glass from coal - gas and petroleum coke sources will inevitably decrease in 2026, but the specific time and daily melting volume reduction are uncertain [11][12]. - Financial Issues: Since May 2024, domestic natural - gas - based float common white flat glass has been in a state of overall loss. High - cost and financially - pressured glass enterprises may be forced to shut down, and this situation may become more severe in 2026 [12][14]. 3.3 Current Price Restrictive Factors - The supply is still relatively strong or the supply - demand is weak, and the supply - side data has not significantly fallen below the supply - demand balance point (the market generally expects the balance point to be a daily melting volume of 14.5 tons) [15]. - There are uncertainties in the supply - side data, with both production line cold - repair or shutdown expectations and cold - repaired production line ignition and resumption expectations [15]. - The inventory is relatively high, especially during the winter and around the Spring Festival, which is the peak inventory - accumulation period [15]. - The consumption recovery is not obvious, and it is difficult to feel the improvement in the short term due to the seasonality of glass consumption [15]. - The market has a negative view of glass, and the short - selling power is strong [15]. 3.4 Conditions for a Major Market in 2026 - The current low glass price and strong short - selling power provide necessary conditions for a major market [15]. - Domestic glass consumption is resilient, and glass demand is expected to stop declining or have a mild rebound in 2026 [15]. - Due to environmental protection and financial issues, glass supply will gradually decrease over time [16]. 3.5 Data Requirements for a Major Market - Supply - side: The daily melting volume of float glass needs to be below 14.5 tons and remain at this level for a sufficient period. The lower the daily melting volume and the longer the duration, the greater the market space [16]. - Inventory - side: There needs to be a significant reduction in flat glass inventory. A key point is an inventory of 40 million weight boxes in the upstream. If the inventory is below this level and remains so for a certain period, it indicates that the supply and consumption can support a market [16]. 3.6 Probable Time for a Major Market - Unless there are strong policy surprises, capital pre - layout, or other unexpected factors, the probability of a major glass market in the second half of 2026 is higher as it takes time for clear data to emerge [17].