碳酸锂：延续供需紧平衡区间震荡企稳，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market will continue to maintain a tight supply - demand balance and stabilize with fluctuations under the fermentation of geopolitical risks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate oscillated in the range of 151,100 - 160,900 yuan/ton, trading volume shrank to 228,000 lots, and open interest increased by 1,529 lots to 333,900 lots. The net institutional position decreased month - on - month. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants were still reluctant to sell, while a small number of material factories made bargain purchases. The market inquiries increased, but actual transactions were light [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the prices of raw materials (SMM lithium spodumene concentrate CIF China, lithium mica, and amblygonite) decreased month - on - month. The SMM weekly operating rate rebounded to 51.5%, and the total output increased to 22,590 tons (+768 tons). In February, the export of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased by 32.04% month - on - month and 85.89% year - on - year, strengthening the medium - term supply loosening expectation [2]. - Demand: Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium iron increased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. SMM predicted that the production of ternary lithium iron in March would increase by more than 19% month - on - month, and the industrial chain production schedule maintained high prosperity [2]. - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - place social inventory decreased to 43,000 tons (-1,300 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,400 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 27.9 days, maintaining a tight balance overall [2]. Macro - policy Analysis - International: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand [3]. - Domestic: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raises the recycling threshold and eliminates backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support the long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut strengthens the medium - and long - term positive atmosphere [3]. Impact of Geopolitical Factors The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk - aversion sentiment, and the US dollar index has fluctuated more. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, but its impact is subject to the dominant tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market [4].