流动性周报：近历史新低的存单怎么看？-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term end of the bond market, especially the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate, has approached historical lows, and the analysis and judgment of it have little meaning due to the narrowing of fluctuations and changes in supply - demand structure [1][2][24]. - For the long - term end, the bond market shows a dull performance. Without clear monetary policy easing actions, the downward overdraft trading of long - term yields won't go far, and there is no obvious upward adjustment risk either [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Near - historical low NCDs: How to view? 1.1 Situation of Long - term and Short - term Bond Yields - Long - term: During the period around the Two Sessions, the 30 - year ultra - long - term interest rate was weak, while the 10 - year interest rate was stable. The bond market was insensitive to both risk - aversion sentiment and inflation concerns. Without clear monetary policy easing, long - term yields had no significant upward or downward trends [9]. - Short - term: The NCD rate has approached historical lows. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks and the yields of bank financial bonds and 3 - year CDB bonds declined synchronously and slowly. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks had a first - level issuance and second - level price around 1.55%, close to the historical low of 1.54% in 2020. The decline in NCD and short - term interest rates compressed the spread with the capital interest rate [12]. 1.2 Changes in NCD Supply - demand Structure - Supply side: The NCD stock has significantly decreased, with state - owned and joint - stock banks reducing about 3 trillion. Since 2024, state - owned banks have become the main suppliers. However, since the second half of 2025, the net financing of NCDs has been continuously negative. The low willingness of banks to issue NCDs is due to changes in the liability situation, such as the narrowing of the broad liability gap and the improvement of the deposit side. Additionally, central bank injections and inter - bank deposits can replace NCDs [14][15][18]. - Demand side: Product accounts maintain their NCD allocations, while banks actively reduce their holdings. Product accounts like bank wealth management and money market funds maintain stable NCD investments, while banks' NCD holdings have significantly decreased, which is related to the lack of spread space and the extrusion of idle funds after the tightening of inter - bank self - discipline [22]. 1.3 Pricing and Significance of NCDs - The reasonable pricing of NCDs may be concentrated in the narrow range of 1.55% - 1.6%. There may be windows below 1.55%, but it loses the meaning of investment gaming. If the rate goes up, it will be when all maturities and varieties of interest rates face upward risks. With the narrowing of capital fluctuations, short - term products including NCDs have lost their "activity", and the significance of analysis and judgment is small [1][24]. 2. Risk Outlook No content other than risk warnings is provided in this part, so it is skipped.