重申灵活高效降准降息债券收益率或因资金和风偏推动继续震荡下行：经济目标增速软性下调，原油价格飙升或引发海外滞涨预期

Report Information - Report Title: Economic target growth rate is softly lowered, and the surge in crude oil prices may trigger overseas stagflation expectations - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [1] - Report Date: March 8, 2026 - Author: Li Rongkai, Macro Team of Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Contact Information: TEL 13361063969, Email lirk@ztqh.com Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [6] Summary by Directory 01 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - Reiterate flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and bond yields may continue to fluctuate downward driven by funds and risk appetite [6] 02 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields decline, US bond yields rise, and the US dollar index strengthens. In the equity market, both domestic and overseas markets weaken, and commodities rise significantly, especially crude oil, European routes, and agricultural products [12] 03 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February declined more than expected, mainly due to seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival factors fade and temperatures rise, the probability of the PMI rebounding in March is high, but it is still difficult to rise to 50%. Special attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil supply shocks on downstream production [30][31] - Overseas: The most important economic data released this week in the United States is the unexpectedly cold February non - farm payrolls report. This report forms a stagflation combination with the tense Middle East situation, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts this year have changed, with the first cut postponed from June to September and the number of cuts reduced from 3 to 2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI reached 56.1, the highest in more than three years, indicating strong expansion in the service sector [31] - Geopolitical Risks: The conflict in the Middle East has escalated into a war, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has been severely受阻. Gulf countries will be forced to cut production due to capacity limitations, and overseas downstream refineries will face maintenance and shutdowns. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz's passage situation on the macro - economy is greater than the war itself, but this is difficult to predict [31] 04 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - Fundamentals: The central bank's large - scale withdrawal in the open market has not affected the overall loose and stable fund prices. Bank interbank certificate of deposit rates and SHIBOR1Y rates continue to decline slowly. There may be room for further decline in 1 - year fund rates in the future. The central bank governor's statement on monetary policy is generally neutral. The statement on anti - involution goes beyond traditional credit policy guidance, and future monetary and credit injections will be more targeted [8][41] - Bond Market: Bond yields fluctuate within a reasonable range, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield stable around 1.8%, and corporate bond issuance costs remaining low. The bond market was strong this week due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment. If the central bank continues to conduct large - scale liquidity injections, it is possible that the interbank certificate of deposit rate will continue to move towards 1.5%, which is beneficial to medium - and long - term bonds [8] 05 Equity Broad - based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 31) - Fundamentals: Analyzed the ROE, EPS, and PE of major broad - based indexes, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., to reflect the fundamentals of the equity market [97][100][102] - Liquidity: Tracked the trading volume, margin trading balance, and turnover rate of the equity market, as well as the net purchase of southbound funds, to understand the liquidity situation of the equity market [117][122][125] 06 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P32 - 51) - Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure: Analyzed the year - on - year changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure, fiscal expenditure progress, and land transfer revenue and expenditure of local governments [153][155][157] - Bond Financing and Fund Supply and Demand: Studied the relationship between social financing, M2, M1, and the issuance and financing of government bonds [161][162][163] - Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate: Monitored real - estate - related indicators such as land transaction area, housing sales area, housing prices, and real - estate development investment to understand the real - estate market situation [170][180][181] - Inflation Tracking: Tracked inflation indicators such as the CPI, PPI, and prices of key commodities to understand the inflation situation [193][204][207] - Industrial Production and Inventory Tracking: Monitored industrial production indicators such as steel output, iron water production, and factory operating rates, as well as inventory levels of various industries, to understand the industrial production and inventory situation [213][224][230] 07 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P52 - 53) - Not provided in the document Other Important Information - Central Bank Meetings and Policies: The 2025 December Central Political Bureau Meeting and the 2025 December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and put forward requirements in various aspects such as economic development, industrial policies, and risk prevention [334][336][337] - US Fed Meeting: The December 2025 Fed meeting had a relatively hawkish stance on economic forecasts, dot plots, and interest rate cut rhythms, but was relatively dovish on the balance between inflation and employment [332][333] - US Tariff Policies: The US trade war strategy may have a major turning point. The US's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs on foreign products is difficult to continue, and the new tariff measures based on the 122nd article of the 1974 Trade Act also face legal risks. There may be a long - term refund battle, and the US may turn to more traditional trade - war tools [342][344][347] - Public Offering Fund Sales New Regulations: Compared the old and new regulations on the sales fees of public offering funds, including subscription fees, redemption fees, sales service fees, and client maintenance fees [340]