工业硅多晶硅周报：工业硅大厂成本上移，多晶硅厂家降价成交落地-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main trading logic of industrial silicon is that the cost center has shifted upwards, but demand lacks elasticity, and there is no sustainable expectation for supply improvement. The increase in electricity prices in Xinjiang has led to higher costs for large manufacturers, and the slowdown of their restart plans is expected to improve the supply - demand situation in March. The current disk price valuation has been gradually repaired, but there is no obvious supply - demand driver. It is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [44]. - The main trading logic of polysilicon is that the market outlook is pessimistic, and the spot price has collapsed. Although the industry association encourages self - discipline and price limits, the low - price sales of some manufacturers have reduced market confidence. In March, the increase in the production of batteries and components is expected to improve the supply - demand situation in the industrial chain, but the high - inventory pressure and weak domestic demand make the subsequent total demand pessimistic. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [50]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon Overview and Views - Weekly Review (March 2 - March 6, 2026) - Prices: The prices of 553, 99 - silicon, and 421 industrial silicon all decreased, with the 553 price at Tianjin Port dropping by 1.6% week - on - week, the 99 - silicon price in Xinjiang dropping by 200 yuan, and the 421 price in Yunnan dropping by 1.0% week - on - week [7]. - Costs: The cash costs in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang are 21181 yuan, 11559 yuan, and 10124 yuan respectively. The increase in electricity prices in Xinjiang has led to an increase in the costs of large manufacturers [7]. - Profits: The cash profits in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang are all negative, and the profit margins have decreased [7]. - Supply: The weekly production of industrial silicon increased by 3.2% to 71,859 tons, with Xinjiang's production increasing by 6.2%. Some factories in Xinjiang and Yunnan have restarted production, but there are also plans for production cuts and overhauls [7]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material decreased by 8.0% to 49 yuan/kg, the average cost decreased by 2.3%, and the average profit decreased by 52.9%. The weekly production decreased by 6.5% to 1.88 million tons [10]. - Silicon Wafers: The price of N - type 183 silicon wafers decreased, the cost decreased, and the profit became more negative. The weekly production increased by 10.2% to 11.08 GW, and the inventory decreased by 3.5% [10]. - Organic Silicon: The DMC cost increased by 2.9%, the profit decreased by 2.7%, the weekly production increased by 2.4% to 42,000 tons, and the inventory increased by 6.9% [10]. - Aluminum Alloys: The silicon consumption increased by 4.9% [10]. - Exports: The export volume increased by 7.6%, but the export market is still cold [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 1.17% to 74.89 million tons, and the inventory available time decreased by 7.2% [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits - Prices: The prices of 553, 421, and 99 - silicon have shown different trends over time [58][62][67]. - Costs: The cash costs of industrial silicon in different regions such as Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang have changed over time [85]. - Profits: The cash profits of industrial silicon in different regions are mostly negative [85]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Monthly Data: The monthly production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions have changed over time [100][102][105]. - Weekly Data: The weekly production of industrial silicon in different regions has also changed, with some regions showing increases and others remaining stable [116]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Gap - Inventory: The total inventory of industrial silicon (including social and factory inventories) has decreased, and the inventory available time has also decreased [120]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Polysilicon - Polysilicon Supply Analysis - Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits - Prices: The prices of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed over time [129][142]. - Costs and Profits: The production costs and profits of polysilicon have changed, with the profit margin decreasing [131][132]. - Polysilicon Supply - The production capacity, production, and开工 rate of polysilicon have changed over time [133][134][135]. - Polysilicon Demand Analysis - Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits - The prices, costs, and profits of polysilicon - related downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed [144][145]. - Supply - Demand of Silicon Wafers/Battery Cells/Components/Installations - The production,开工 rate, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and solar power installations have changed over time [147][148][150]. - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Chain Inventory Analysis - The inventories of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in different regions and at different times have changed [167][168][169]. 4. Industrial Silicon Demand - Organic Silicon - Organic Silicon Price Spreads/Cost Profits - Prices: The price of the organic silicon intermediate DMC and its price transmission relationships have changed over time [176][177]. - Costs and Profits: The production costs and profits of DMC have changed [179][180]. - Organic Silicon Supply/Demand/Inventory - Supply: The production capacity, production, and开工 rate of DMC have changed over time [181][183][185]. - Demand: The weekly apparent consumption of DMC has changed [188]. - Inventory: The factory inventory and inventory available time of DMC have changed [190][191][192]. 5. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Aluminum Alloys - The monthly and cumulative production of aluminum alloys have changed over time, and the silicon consumption has increased [195][196]. 6. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Exports - Internal - External Price Spreads: The price spread of metal silicon 553 between China and South Korea has changed over time [198][199]. - Export Volume: The monthly and cumulative export volume of metal silicon have changed, with an increase in the export volume [202][203]. 7. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Total Demand - The weekly apparent demand of industrial silicon and the inventory available time have changed over time [206][207][208].