申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the rubber price is expected to be strong due to the continuous strength of crude oil driving the chemical products to perform strongly under the influence of the recent geopolitical conflicts, and the continuous strengthening of synthetic rubber supporting the natural rubber price. The natural rubber is in the seasonal low - yield stage, with domestic and Thai production areas stopping production. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, is continuously increasing, and the supply - side elasticity is weakened in the short term. The raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side is expected to have support for the resumption of work after the festival, and the strong synthetic rubber limits the downward space of natural rubber [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16835, 13570, and 14655 respectively, with price increases of 280, 200, and 545, and price increase rates of 1.69%, 1.50%, and 3.86% respectively compared to the day before the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 231410, 55294, and 149809 respectively, and the open interests were 149723, 65897, and 63090 respectively. The open interests increased by 1942, 1369, and 6011 respectively [2]. - Spread Changes: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 3265, 2180, and - 1085 respectively, with changes of 80, - 265, and - 345 compared to the previous values [2]. - Basis Changes: The current RU basis is - 135, and the basis of mixed - RU is - 1335, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU is 2815. Compared with the previous values, they changed by - 30, - 400, and - 30 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16600, 16700, and 16700 respectively, with price increase rates of 1.53%, 1.52%, and 1.83% respectively. The current prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19600 and 19650 respectively, with price increase rates of 1.03% and 1.29% respectively. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15500 and 16325 respectively, with price change rates of - 0.77% and 0.15% respectively [2]. - Downstream Products: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 70.61, 58.53, and 69 (in Thai baht per kilogram) respectively, with price change rates of - 0.39%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [2].