贵金属专题：节后金银为何再次狂飙？

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint After the Spring Festival, the precious metals market had a strong start with significant increases in gold and silver prices. As of February 25, the weekly increase of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 3.69%, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 16.41%. The reasons include weak US economic data leading to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, tense US - Iran relations, and fluctuating US tariff policies. Silver had a larger increase due to industrial demand and a smaller market size. The current volatility of gold and silver has significantly decreased compared to before the festival, and the right - side allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent, so it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Economic Data Weak, Rate - Cut Expectations Still Exist During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas precious metals trended upward. In February, data showed that the US January CPI unexpectedly slowed, with the year - on - year CPI dropping to 2.4% (below the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%), and the core CPI dropping to 2.5%. The Q4 2025 GDP growth rate significantly slowed to 1.4%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.4% and the expected 2.8%. The February 2026 US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were both lower than expected and previous values. Weak economic data is conducive to the Fed's subsequent rate - cut operations and the rise of precious metals [4]. 3.2 Tense US - Iran Relations, Frequent Tariff Disturbances On the US - Iran front, on February 23, Iran warned that any attack on it would be considered aggression. The US is carrying out a large - scale military deployment in the Middle East, and the conflict probability has increased, raising market risk - aversion sentiment. However, the probability of a full - scale war is extremely low. On the tariff front, the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were invalid, but Trump quickly announced a 10% tariff on global goods starting February 24 for 150 days and then planned to raise it to 15%. The erratic tariff policy provides strong hedging support for precious metals [7][8]. 3.3 Strong Central Bank Gold Purchases, Silver Inventory Depletion In 2025, global central banks' gold - purchasing demand remained strong. In Q4 2025, central banks' net gold purchases increased by 6% quarter - on - quarter to 230 tons, and the annual total was 863 tons. Poland's central bank was the largest official gold buyer in 2025, and China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months since November 2024. In 2025, global gold ETF holdings reached a record high of 4025 tons, with significant inflows from North America and Asia. For silver, as of February 24, 2026, COMEX registered silver inventory dropped to 88.19 million ounces, and total inventory decreased by 31% since October 2025. China's export controls and long - term supply shortages support the silver price [13][17][19]. 3.4 Future Outlook: Upward Trend Assured In the long term, factors such as the de - dollarization process, continuous central bank gold purchases, and non - convergent fiscal monetization support the long - term upward trend of precious metals. In the short term, geopolitical and tariff factors support the strong performance of gold and silver. Silver has a larger increase due to industrial demand. It is recommended to focus on the US - Iran situation and US employment and PPI data. Currently, the volatility of gold and silver has decreased, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26].