集运指数（欧线）：地缘情绪扰动主导，观望为主

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report suggests a "wait - and - see" approach for the container shipping index (European routes) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the container shipping index (European routes) has seen amplified fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances. The impact of geopolitical events on the spot market of container shipping European routes is divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The emotional aspect leads to a strong sentiment among liner companies to increase freight rates in the short term. The supply - demand impact is mainly on the capacity side, with a long transmission path. The key is to observe the duration of the conflict and liner companies' capacity adjustment actions. If the situation cools down within 1 - 2 weeks (low probability currently), the global container shipping geopolitical premium is expected to decline from its peak, and the European routes will return to being dominated by their own supply - demand pricing. If the situation drags on for weeks to months, the operational risks of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el - Mandeb will continue to be threatened, and adjustments to the operational plans of the Middle East and Red Sea routes will be crucial, affecting the global capacity tightness [9]. - From the perspective of the European routes' own supply - demand: On the demand side, there was no large - scale missed loading in the second week of March. The loading situation after the rate increase in the third week will be clearer next week. In the long - term, if oil prices soar and remain high, potential downside risks may come from macro - negative feedback [10]. - On the supply side, in the second half of March, due to the short - term suspension of Middle East routes, COSCO Shipping added its CSCL ATLANTIC OCEAN (19,000 TEU) from the Middle East MEX route as an extra ship to the Northwest European AEU3 route, with a departure date in the fourth week of March. The average weekly capacity in the second half of March is 327,000 TEU, a 27% increase from the first half of 258,000 TEU. The static capacity in April is 322,000 TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10%, which is neutral. If the risk of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz/Bab el - Mandeb remains high, the impact on the European route capacity mainly includes: the change of Middle East/Red Sea routes leads to a tightening of global effective capacity, which may not change the over - capacity pattern in the off - season (September - October) of European routes but may increase the probability of capacity shortages in the peak season (June - August). A possible solution for Middle East - Red Sea trade flows is to go around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, enter Mediterranean hubs, and then transfer by land or sea to Jeddah Port on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia for re - transfer. The Gemini Alliance launched a new route on March 6. There are potential risks of port congestion in Southeast Asian hub ports such as Singapore and India, and the empty container turnover at Asian departure ports may be affected, indirectly affecting the turnover efficiency of European routes [11]. - On the freight side, in the short term, shipowners are united in pushing up rates in late March, but the capacity is negatively affected by geopolitics (COSCO's extra ship), and the support of the loading rate is weak. In the medium - term, ship companies usually try to increase rates in April. If the war continues and the passage risk in the Strait of Hormuz/Bab el - Mandeb does not cool down, supply - chain chaos may gradually accumulate in April, increasing the probability of a successful rate increase. In addition, rising oil prices drive up the bunker adjustment factor (BAF), which is included in the SCFIS index. The linear conversion relationship is that for every $10 increase in oil prices, the BAF increases by $50 - $100/FEU, corresponding to an increase of 35 - 70 points in the SCFIS index. Overall, the short - term market is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. The near - month 2604 contract is currently at par with the spot freight rate of around 1800 points after the expected rate increase in the third week of March. Attention should be paid to whether the resumption of work and production in the second half of March supports the rate increase of all ship companies and the follow - up of BAF by other ship companies. The geopolitical premium may rise again, and the trend is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the changes in container shipping Middle East routes caused by geopolitical disturbances, and beware of repeated geopolitical emotions. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see overall, and consider using positive spreads for short - term trading to deal with geopolitical shocks [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,892.2, with a daily decrease of 4.43%, yesterday's trading volume was 85,170, yesterday's open interest was 33,995, and the open interest change was - 2,684. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 2.51, compared with 4.19 the day before [1]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 2,161.4, with a daily increase of 1.40%, yesterday's trading volume was 17,081, yesterday's open interest was 20,319, and the open interest change was 149. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.84, compared with 1.51 the day before [1]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 2,180.0, with a daily increase of 1.81%, yesterday's trading volume was 2,527, yesterday's open interest was 3,015, and the open interest change was 51. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.84, compared with 1.46 the day before [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,459.0, with a daily increase of 0.62%, yesterday's trading volume was 6,952, yesterday's open interest was 11,017, and the open interest change was - 391. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.63, compared with 1.08 the day before [1]. 3.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European routes' current value is 1,463.40 points, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; US West routes' current value is 1,045.08 points, with a weekly decline of 6.0% [1]. - SCFI: European routes' current value is $1,452/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 2.3%; US West routes' current value is $1,940/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.5% [1]. 3.3 Shipping Schedule and Capacity Data - In March - April, there are 11 blank sailings and 1 extra sailing in March, 1 blank sailing, 3 undetermined sailings, and CMA added an OCR route in April. The undetermined sailings are not included in the capacity statistics. The weekly capacity in March - April has fluctuations. The monthly average weekly capacity in the second half of March is 32.7 million TEU, a 27% increase from the first half. The static capacity in April is 32.2 million TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10% [4][11]. 3.4 Geopolitical News - Mujtaba, the son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Iran claims to have destroyed 4 US "THAAD" system radars and says it has the ability to conduct a high - intensity war for more than half a year. According to Iranian media, an Israeli attack on an Iranian oil depot killed four people. The Iranian foreign minister said they would not consider another temporary cease - fire. The US tried to distort Iran's apology to its neighbors as surrender. Trump said there was no sign that Russia supported Iran. There were protests in the US demanding the government to stop the war. Trump threatened that the new Iranian supreme leader would not stay in power long without his approval. The US cancelled the navigation warning for commercial ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and Israel resumed limited commercial flights [7][8][12].