原油周报：霍尔木兹海峡运输中断，国际油价重上90美金-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the US - Iran military conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices. OPEC+ will increase production slightly in April, but the current tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz are the main drivers for the short - term rise in oil prices [3][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - long - term): EIA slightly raised the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2026. OPEC's January 2026 crude oil production decreased compared to December 2025, while IEA showed an increase in OPEC's production in January 2026. Non - OPEC DoC countries' production had different trends in different reports [3] - Demand (Medium - to - long - term): EIA and OPEC slightly adjusted the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate in 2026, while IEA lowered the forecast [3] - Inventory (Short - term): The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventory increased in the week ending February 27. Refined oil inventory and gasoline inventory had different changes [3] - Oil - producing Country Policies (Medium - to - long - term): OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April. The U.S. government has not discussed releasing strategic petroleum reserves for now, but may re - evaluate if oil prices remain high or geopolitical risks intensify [3] - Geopolitical (Short - term): Tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel are rising. Iran is ready to respond to a U.S. ground invasion, and a U.S. naval aircraft carrier strike group is preparing to be deployed to the Middle East [3] - Macro - finance (Short - term): Uncertainty in the current situation increases tail risks. If the conflict expands, oil prices may rise above $120 per barrel, affecting the U.S. economy. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is over 97% [3] - Investment View: Bullish on crude oil. Although OPEC+ will increase production slightly in April, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz are the main drivers for the short - term rise in oil prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: The interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the US - Iran military conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices. As of March 6, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all had substantial weekly increases [7] - Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread strengthened significantly, and the internal - external spread expanded sharply [10] - Forward Curve: The month - to - month spread strengthened significantly [24] - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all strengthened [27][30] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In January 2026, global crude oil production decreased slightly. The production of non - OPEC countries increased in some cases. U.S. weekly crude oil production was 13.7 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [42][51][77] - Inventory: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 347,500 barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 156,400 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [78][84] - Demand: In the U.S., the implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, while the refinery operating rate increased slightly. In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate rebounded, and the profit of major refineries recovered, with the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel strengthening [108][118][126] - Macro - finance: U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the U.S. dollar index rose [139] - CFTC Position: The speculative net long position of WTI crude oil increased [148]