有色金属基础周报：通胀预期增强，降息预期降低除铝外有色金属趋于调整-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Interval trading or wait - and - see [2] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [2] - Alumina: Short - term trading [2] - Aluminum alloy: Buy on dips [2] - Zinc: Short - term trading or moderately short on rallies [2] - Lead: Interval trading [2] - Nickel: Buy on dips [3] - Stainless steel: Buy on dips [3] - Tin: Interval trading [3] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips moderately [3] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [3] - Lithium carbonate: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify. The price is in a high - level range and may adjust, but the adjustment space is limited [2]. - The aluminum market is influenced by factors such as bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle - East situation. The overall trend is upward, but the impact of the Middle - East situation is two - sided [2]. - The zinc price is under pressure due to continuous inventory build - up and weak downstream consumption, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The lead price is affected by inventory changes, energy demand, and inflation expectations. It is in a low - level weak adjustment and maintains interval trading [2]. - The nickel price is supported by the supply limitation of nickel ore, but the inventory build - up and weak demand limit its upward drive. It is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation [3]. - The tin price is in a wide - range oscillation due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds with improved supply - demand expectations, but the rebound height is restricted by the oversupply situation. Polysilicon supply increases while demand is weak, and the price continues to fall [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - In the week of 3/2 - 3/8, important economic data were released. For example, the euro - zone's February manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, and the US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 [11][19][21]. - The Chinese government set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and planned a deficit rate of about 4%. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% [13][14]. - The US - Iran conflict led to a rise in oil prices, increased inflation concerns, and reduced the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year [17]. - The euro - zone's February CPI increased by 1.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and the probability of the ECB's interest rate hike increased [18]. 3.2 Copper - The copper price is in a high - level range and is affected by macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and inflation expectations. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify [2]. - The global copper inventory is in a high - level range, and the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate significantly [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - The price of domestic bauxite continues to fall, while the price of Guinea's bulk ore increases slightly. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increases [2]. - The downstream processing enterprises' start - up rate rises, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of a turning point [2]. 3.4 Zinc - The zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and domestic smelters resume production seasonally after the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory continues to accumulate [2]. 3.5 Lead - The LME and COMEX lead inventories decrease slightly, while the SHFE lead inventory increases slightly. The upstream and downstream demand shows different trends [2]. - The lead price is affected by energy demand and inflation expectations, and it is in a low - level weak adjustment [2]. 3.6 Nickel - The nickel ore supply is tight, and the price is strong. The refined nickel production in March increases significantly, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The nickel iron price is expected to rise with the resumption of steel mills' production, and the stainless steel price and production increase [3]. 3.7 Tin - The tin production in February is expected to be 17,000 tons. The import of tin concentrate and the export of refined tin show different trends [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the tin price is in a wide - range oscillation [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon production increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The polysilicon production increases, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds, but the polysilicon price continues to fall [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate in February decreases, and the import shows different trends. The demand is strong, and the inventory continues to decline [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3].