方正中期期货硅料期货及期权2026年2月报告：贵金属大幅回落企稳后可考虑逢低做多-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of precious metals remains unchanged, with long - term bullish expectations in the macro aspect and strong supply - demand fundamentals [54]. - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend. Instead, focus on buying on dips. For options, consider the bull spread strategy. The lower support range for the platinum main contract is 600 - 620, and the upper pressure range is 780 - 800 [54]. - The supply - demand structure of platinum is still tight. Platinum has both financial and industrial attributes, with strong investment enthusiasm and a weak supply situation. The subsequent platinum price is expected to remain strong [55]. - The supply - demand contradiction of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, and its financial attribute is far inferior to platinum. It is recommended to wait and see. The lower support range for the palladium main contract is 450 - 460, and the upper pressure range is 550 - 570. If the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange narrows to around 50, consider going long on the platinum - palladium price difference [57]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Core Viewpoints Overview - Platinum: The core factors driving the rise in gold prices include the start of the US interest - rate cut cycle, economic downturn, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, rising ETF holdings, investors' lack of confidence in the US and turning to gold, and frequent geopolitical events. The current market core contradiction lies in the duration and outcome of the war and the impact on oil prices. After the precious metals fall from high levels, the strategy is to buy on dips. The lower support range for the platinum main contract is 500 - 520, and the upper pressure range is 780 - 800. Options can consider the bull spread strategy [5]. - Palladium: The supply - demand contradiction of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, and its financial attribute is far inferior to platinum. It is difficult for palladium to rise and the回调 amplitude is larger. It is recommended to wait and see. The lower support range for the palladium main contract is 400 - 420, and the upper pressure range is 550 - 570. If the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange narrows to around 50, consider going long on the platinum - palladium price difference [5]. 2. Overview of the Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - Platinum: Platinum is widely used, mainly in automobile catalysts, a wide range of industrial fields, jewelry, and investment needs. The proportions of the four core demand areas - industry, automobile, jewelry, and investment - are 24%, 37%, 30%, and 9% respectively [12]. - Palladium: Palladium is similar in nature to platinum, and its downstream consumption areas overlap with those of platinum, often serving as substitutes for each other. In palladium consumption, the proportions of automobile catalysts, chemical electronics, and jewelry investment are 83%, 11%, and 2.2% respectively, with the main use in the automobile field, followed by industrial applications, and relatively small jewelry and investment needs [17]. 3. Fundamental Situation of Platinum and Palladium - Macroeconomic Factors - The US attack on Iran has led to a significant decline in risk assets, a strong risk - aversion sentiment, and a rebound in the US dollar index, which suppresses prices. However, the long - term expectation of a weak US dollar still exists, which boosts the price of precious metals. The core contradiction of the US dollar lies in the conflict situation, its resolution, and whether the short - term oil price increase will continue into the medium - term, dragging the macro - environment into stagflation [24][29]. - The US long - term bond yield has declined, and the market's confidence in the US has recovered to some extent, causing the gold price to fall from high levels [32]. - Central banks in China and other major countries around the world continue to buy gold, which promotes the continuous rise of the gold price [34]. - The ETF holdings of gold remain at a high level, driving the physical demand for gold. Although the gold price has fallen, the ETF holdings have remained stable [37]. - Historical Price Relationship - The price decline of platinum and palladium is due to the weakening of the precious - metal attribute and the influence of the industrial - product attribute. The ratio of platinum to palladium has rebounded from a low level. From a precious - metal perspective, the reasonable range of the gold - platinum ratio is between 1.8 and 2.5 [41]. - Supply - Demand Balance - Platinum: From 2027 to 2030, the average annual market shortage is expected to be 10.8 tons (previously predicted to be 17.1 tons). The total supply has been increased by an average of 1.3% due to the upward adjustment of both mineral and recycling supply forecasts. The total demand forecast has been decreased by an average of 1.9% compared with the previous estimate, mainly due to the decrease in jewelry demand [43]. - Palladium: The market is predicted to enter a surplus state from 2026. The total supply has been increased by an average of 2.0%, mainly reflected in the upward adjustment of recycling supply. The total demand has been decreased by an average of 0.2%, with a relatively small adjustment amplitude due to its low correlation with the jewelry market and weak demand elasticity in the automobile and industrial fields [45]. 4. Summary - The long - term bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips for platinum and wait and see for palladium. Pay attention to the price difference between platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for potential trading opportunities [54][57].