日度策略参考-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - Alumina: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - Nickel: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - Tin: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - Platinum and Lithium: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Industrial Silicon: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - Polysilicon: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - Rebar: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - Iron Ore: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Silicon Iron: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - Glass: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - Soda Ash: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - Soybean Oil: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - Cotton: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Sugar: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - Paper Pulp: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - Log: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - Pig: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - Fuel Oil: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - Asphalt: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - BD and BR Rubber: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - PX: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - Short - Fiber: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - Methanol: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - PE: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - LPG: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].