纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage, with a short - term outlook of weak and volatile trends due to a loose supply - demand pattern. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, and the short - term market will fluctuate narrowly as the overall supply - demand fundamentals have not improved [6][33] - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see; for glass, it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [8][33] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The short - term is expected to remain weakly volatile, and subsequent attention should be paid to device maintenance, inventory reduction, and policy implementation [6][8] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with slight local price fluctuations. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and the market was in a weakly stable adjustment stage. The futures market was first weak, then strong, and then volatile. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose, and external factors only caused short - term disturbances [8] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soda ash market had light trading last week, with stable prices. After the holiday, the start - up rate increased, but downstream resumption was slow, and factory inventories accumulated to a high level. Futures fluctuated and then sorted out, waiting for further supply - demand guidance [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The soda ash spot market was stable last week, with a loose supply - demand situation and continuous inventory pressure. Futures were affected by sentiment but were suppressed by the fundamentals, with limited rebound space [12] 3.3 Relevant Data - Soda ash: China's weekly start - up rate, weekly production, weekly light and heavy inventory, daily basis, and weekly ammonia - soda production cost in North China [13][17][20] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The short - term market will fluctuate narrowly, and subsequent attention should be paid to the demand release during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the domestic float glass market was weakly volatile, with different regional performances. Demand release was slow, downstream start - up was low, and inventory generally increased in each region. The overall supply - demand fundamentals had not improved, and market sentiment was cautious [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [33] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The float glass market showed mixed trends last week, with a 70 - yuan/ton increase in East China. Downstream resumption was slow, trading was weak, and industry inventory increased significantly. Glass futures first declined, then rose, and then fell back, caught in the game between weak reality and macro - expectations [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: The float glass market was regionally differentiated last week. Demand was weak, making it difficult to implement price increases, and inventory increased in various places. Futures were caught in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, with cost and policies providing support, but high inventory suppressing the market, and short - term volatility will continue [37] 3.3 Relevant Data - Float glass: China's weekly production, weekly start - up rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily basis, and weekly ending inventory [39][43][47]