20260309申万期货品种策略日报：双焦（J&J）-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a strong trend last week, and the total position of coking coal decreased month-on-month. The production of coking coal continued to rise last week, while the iron - water production decreased significantly month - on - month due to environmental protection restrictions in many places, the rigid demand for coking coal weakened month - on - month, the inventory of clean coal in mines increased, and the inventory of coking coal downstream decreased. It is expected that with the advancement of resuming work and production, the iron - water production will significantly rebound, driving the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke. Additionally, the recent intensification of geopolitical conflicts can also stimulate the price of coking coal by increasing the valuation of energy - related commodities, so it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic about the future trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - Closing prices and changes: The closing prices of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts of coking coal and coke on the previous day were 1426.0, 1123.0, 1216.5, 1855.5, 1695.5, and 1762.0 respectively, with increases of 25.0, 17.5, 16.5, 15.5, 19.0, and 17.0 compared to the day before, and increases of 1.78%, 1.58%, 1.37%, 0.84%, 1.13%, and 0.97% respectively [2] - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volumes of 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts of coking coal and coke were 3683, 876475, 62760, 96, 18888, and 11362 respectively, and the open interests were 15308, 496857, 109364, 1252, 37714, and 3160 respectively. The changes in open interest were 22, 228, 961, 8364, 3768, and 891 respectively [2] - Price spreads: The current price spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months for coking coal and coke were - 79.5, 160.5, - 77.5, 240, - 160.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, - 308.5, 429.5, and 2 respectively [2] Spot Market Data - The spot prices of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade, Mongolian No.5 coking coal, low - sulfur coking coal, low - sulfur coking coal, Tangshan first - grade, and port first - grade showed changes of - 55, 0, - 20, 0, - 50, and 0 respectively [2] Policy Information - At the press conference on the economic theme of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 6, the Minister of Finance Lan Fuan stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would be fully implemented, which was reflected in both the scale of funds and the strengthening of policy coordination. The Governor of the People's Bank of China Pan Gongsheng said that the interest rate level would be guided and regulated to keep the comprehensive social financing cost low, and market behaviors that weakened the transmission effect of monetary policy would be regulated. The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie said that various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts would be flexibly and efficiently used this year [2] - The relevant department will set up a national - level M&A fund in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China to smooth the exit channels for venture capital [2]