股指短期承压，国债或震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, causing external markets to generally decline, and stock index futures may face pressure. The bond market may benefit indirectly in the short term if external inflation expectations suppress risk assets, but it could pose a concern in the medium term if inflation becomes a reality. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Stock index trend review: Most stocks rose, with nearly 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher. [11] - Core view: Geopolitical events such as the change of leadership in Iran, the Israel-Iran conflict, and the "production halt wave" in the Middle East, along with concerns about stagflation in the US, have led to external market declines, and the stock index may face pressure. [11] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate. [11] - Strategy outlook: Range-bound fluctuations. [11] Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury bond trend review: The 30-year main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year main contract remained flat, the 5-year main contract remained flat, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01%. [12] - Core view: The market has entered a sideways and low-volatility state, and institutional buying willingness remains. The bond yield is unlikely to rebound significantly. The market will focus on quarter-end institutional behavior and overseas developments. External inflation expectations may indirectly benefit the bond market in the short term but pose a concern in the medium term. [12] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate. [12] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation. [12] Key Data Tracking PMI - On March 4, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in February fell to 49.0%. The decline was in line with seasonal patterns, but structural changes need attention, including a significant decline in external demand and an increasing risk of imported inflation. [18] CPI - Seasonal factors and the low base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year-on-year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: the low base, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption. [21] Imports and Exports - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, higher than the market expectation. The month-on-month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years. The two-year compound growth rate also rebounded. The overestimation of trade friction and the underestimation of the upward power of the global manufacturing cycle led to the unexpected growth of exports in 2025. The "One Belt, One Road" investment driving foreign trade may continue in 2026. [24] Fixed Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was -3.8%, a significant decline from 2024 and turning negative. The estimated growth rate in December was -16.0%, with the decline continuing to widen. Among them, the growth rates of private investment and public investment in December were -17.2% and -14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. The growth rate of construction and installation projects in December dropped to -28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively. [27] Social Retail - In 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above-limit retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly rebounding from 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell to 0.9%, while the decline of above-limit retail narrowed to -1.9%. The performance difference was mainly due to the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods. [30] Social Financing - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced that in January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion yuan. At the end of January, the year-on-year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year-on-year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year-on-year increases of long-term loans for residents and enterprises were both less, while the year-on-year increases of short-term loans for residents and enterprises were more. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 both rebounded, and non-bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity. [33]