长江期货粕类油脂周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the cost increase drives the price to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity price fluctuations. Although the overall soybean meal price is at the cost bottom and fully reflects the expectation of loose supply and demand, the price is likely to break through upwards under the background of international and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - For oils and fats, in the short term, the continuous Middle - East war and geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, supporting the oils and fats to continue to oscillate strongly. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of oils and fats if the Middle - East situation eases. It is recommended to take a long position in soybean and palm oils and roll over existing long positions [73]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends As of March 6, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price was 05 + 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The domestic spot supply and demand remained loose, and the basis price was weak; the 05 contract followed the increase in US soybean cost and the price ran strongly [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up the crude oil price, which was expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. The new - season planting cost of US soybeans was affected by the recent increase in fertilizer prices, supporting the upward shift of the center price of US soybeans. The increase in crude oil price also drove up international freight rates and supported the premium price. Although the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans declined, the CNF price did not weaken significantly. The geopolitical situation pushed up the price of US soybeans. If the Iran war continued, the price of US soybeans was expected to continue to rise. The premium in Brazil remained around 100 cents, and the significant increase in freight rates limited the decline of the Brazilian premium price. The continuous drought in Argentina affected the soybean, with the good - quality rate declining and the output expected to decline slightly, but the overall supply - demand in South America remained loose. The arrivals in China from April to May were gradually increasing, and the supply - demand remained loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End The domestic pig inventory remained at a high level but entered the seasonal off - season, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. The poultry inventory was at a high level, and the egg - laying hens and broilers inventory remained high. In terms of the formula, the prices of corn and wheat increased, and soybean meal was more cost - effective, with the proportion of soybean meal added increasing steadily. The overall demand for soybean meal remained high. Recently, the price of soybean meal increased, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers improved, with better transactions. In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills increased to 596.69 million tons, an increase of 77.15 million tons or 14.85% week - on - week, and an increase of 181.29 million tons or 43.64% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory of national oil mills decreased to 70.12 million tons, a decrease of 14.13 million tons or 16.77% week - on - week, and an increase of 7.19 million tons or 11.43% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the theoretical price of soybean meal was calculated to be 2940 yuan/ton. From July to September, calculated with a premium of 140 cents, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased to 3020 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans for the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel. If the crude oil price continued to rise, referring to the trend of fertilizer prices after the Russia - Ukraine war in 2021, the planting cost was expected to continue to rise. In terms of import crushing profit, the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose significantly, and the import crushing profit improved. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level was at a relatively good level in the same period of history [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends As of the week of March 6, the main 05 contract of palm oil rose 438 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 420 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of palm oil fell 18 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of soybean oil rose 186 yuan/ton to 8412 yuan/ton week - on - week; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 90 yuan/ton to 8720 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of soybean oil fell 96 yuan/ton to 308 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of rapeseed oil rose 481 yuan/ton to 9666 yuan/ton week - on - week; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 420 yuan/ton to 10040 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of rapeseed oil fell 61 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by the Middle - East war, the crude oil price rose rapidly, driving the domestic vegetable oils to oscillate strongly. Among them, palm oil, which was most closely related to crude oil, and rapeseed oil, with relatively tight domestic supply - demand, performed relatively strongly [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil In February, Malaysia continued to reduce production. According to SPPOMA and MPOA data, the output of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 16.24 - 19.35% month - on - month, and the decline was larger than that from February 1 - 20. However, affected by the export squeeze from Indonesia, shipping agencies reported that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 21.5 - 25.46% month - on - month. The poor export data limited the de - stocking amplitude, and the estimated inventory in February was 2.63 million tons, which decreased month - on - month but was still relatively high. In Indonesia, as the crude oil price rose, GAPKI indicated that B50 might be reconsidered in 2026, and the production side faced the risk of production reduction due to the nationalization of plantations in 2025, both of which were positive factors. In the short term, driven by the rise of crude oil, the 05 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the performance near the previous resistance level of 4400 - 4460. In China, the arrival volume of palm oil in February was expected to increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. As of the week of February 27, the domestic palm oil inventory rose to a high of 786,700 tons. However, the estimated arrival volume of palm oil from March to April was low, and attention should be paid to whether de - stocking could start from March to April after the reduction in supply [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil The USDA would release the March report on March 10. The market expected that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season might be lowered, mainly because the positive US biodiesel policy was expected to be implemented in late March, which was beneficial to the US soybean crushing demand, and China's procurement would boost the US soybean export demand. In South America, the USDA March report was expected to slightly lower the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 48.1 million tons respectively. However, Brazil was still expected to have a bumper harvest and was expected to flood the market in the second quarter, which would impact the US soybean export demand. In addition, US soybean oil was strong due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the rise of international crude oil, which strongly supported US soybeans. Overall, driven by the rise of international crude oil and US soybean oil, the improvement of US soybean demand, and the slight production reduction in South America, the 05 contract of US soybeans was expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. After breaking through 1200, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1250. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans from February to March decreased seasonally, and there were market rumors that the customs had extended the clearance time for South American soybeans, which was beneficial to the de - stocking of soybean oil inventory. As of the week of February 27, the soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 913,300 tons. However, after March, a record amount of South American soybeans would enter China, and the scope of further de - stocking of soybean oil inventory was limited [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil The Middle - East war pushed up the international crude oil price and freight rates, strengthening the cost - side support for domestic imported rapeseed. In addition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, exacerbating the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed oil and jointly driving up the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, on February 27, the final anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed was concluded. China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed was 15%, significantly lower than the previous 75.8% deposit. Although the current loss of crushing profit for importing Canadian rapeseed in China restricted ship - buying, the trade channel between the two countries had been reopened. As long as the crushing profit was appropriate, China could import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in the future. Coupled with the arrival of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed purchased earlier from March to May, it was expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed in China would significantly ease after March. As of the week of February 27, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas had begun to increase to 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory had also slightly increased to 271,000 tons. The inventory inflection point had appeared, and the inventory would continue to accumulate in the future [73].