长江期货贵金属周报：降息预期反复，价格延续调整-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].