地缘扰动扭转供需预期，震荡偏强：聚烯烃周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances have reversed the supply - demand expectations, and the polyolefin market is expected to continue the bullish trend before the conflict ends. However, short - term fluctuations are large, and risk control should be noted [4][8] - For plastics, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may lead to import reduction, potential production load reduction, and strong cost support. For PP, the conflict mainly affects through the raw material end, with compressed PDH profits and strong cost support [4][8] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1. Market Review - This week, plastics and PP both showed a volatile and upward trend. Plastics opened flat at 6630, with a weekly low of 6624 and a high of 7695, an amplitude of 1067 points. PP opened flat at 6680, with a weekly low of 6635 and a high of 7800, an amplitude of 1189 points [3][7][13] 1.2. Capital - As of Thursday this week, the PE main contract position decreased from 480,000 lots to 390,000 lots [15][16] 1.3. Basis - As of Thursday this week, the plastics main contract basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract spread was 37 yuan/ton [19] 1.4. Monthly Spread - As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was 152 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday of 251 yuan/ton on March 5. The PP59 spread was 277 yuan/ton [22] 1.5. Warehouse Receipts No specific content provided 1.6. Cross - Variety - As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was 179 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 186 yuan/ton [27] 1.7. Industry Chain Price and Valuation - The cost side has strong support, and the trends of ethylene and propylene are differentiated [29] 2.1. Supply - This week, the PE output was 720,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The PP output was 770,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 76% and a cumulative year - on - year output increase of 5.3%. In March, the planned new maintenance capacity was 3.28 million tons [45][47] 2.2. Import and Export - In 2025, the average monthly PE import volume was 1.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 3.2%), and the export volume was 90,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 29%). The average monthly PP import volume was 280,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 8.3%), and the export volume was 260,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [52][53][54] 2.3. Downstream Start - up Rate - The downstream start - up rates of PE and PP have declined. The agricultural film start - up rate of PE is at a low level in the same period [55][59] 2.4. Demand - In 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.8 billion US dollars (year - on - year increase of 0.4%), and the proportion of exports to the United States was 14% [65] 2.5. Inventory - This week, the PE commercial inventory was 1.27 million tons, and the PP commercial inventory was 1.08 million tons, both at low levels in the same period. As of Thursday, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory was 475,000 tons. The PE and PP enterprise inventories were 320,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively. The PE social inventory was 480,000 tons, and the PP trader inventory was 180,000 tons [67][70][73][76] 1.1. Spot Price Review No specific content provided 1.2. Warehouse No specific content provided 1.3. Valuation and Profit No specific content provided 2.1. Supply (PDH) - This week, the propylene capacity utilization rate was 72%, and the PDH start - up rate was still at a low level in the same period [89] 2.2. Demand No specific content provided 2.3. Inventory No specific content provided 4. Strategies For Plastics - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of 7500 - 8500 yuan/ton for L2605 [5] - Arbitrage: Hold short LP05 spread [5] - Hedging: Mainly conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [5] For PP - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of 7500 - 8500 yuan/ton for PP2605 [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Hedging: Mainly conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [10]