信用：谁在推动市场下行？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the monetary policy statements during the Two Sessions, long - term interest rates such as 10Y/30Y slightly increased, but ordinary credit bonds saw a decline in yields across all maturities due to buying pressure, with the spreads of ordinary credit bonds over 4Y slightly compressed. After a continuous decline, the secondary and perpetual bonds showed little change this week, and the credit spreads slightly widened [1][10]. - Fund companies are the main buyers of non - financial credit bonds with maturities within 5 years, and other types of funds are the main buyers of ultra - long - term credit bonds with maturities over 5 years. The buying intensity of both is at a high level in recent years. The current situation of banks, insurance, securities firms, and wealth management products is relatively normal. The buying of 3 - 5Y ordinary credit bonds by fund companies is mainly driven by the position - building of amortized - cost bond funds, and it is speculated that wealth management products are still the main buying force among other institutions [2][12]. - Currently, the yield quantiles of credit bonds are at a relatively low level in history, especially for ordinary credit bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, whose yields are at an absolute historical low. There is still room for the yields and spreads of medium - and long - term credit bonds to decline, but it may be difficult to compress the term spreads as the term spreads of medium - and long - term credit bonds are still at a high level, and the term spreads of credit bonds are difficult to move independently from those of treasury bonds [3][19][24]. - It is recommended to seek certainty in short - term bonds. In the current situation of loose capital interest rates, it is advisable to look for coupon income in credit bonds with a maturity of about 2 years. For secondary and perpetual bonds, although the price ratio has recovered recently, it is still necessary to wait appropriately. The reasonable price ratio range of 5 - year AAA - secondary bonds to 5Y AAA medium - term notes in March is 10 - 20bp. For ultra - long - term credit bonds, although they have performed strongly, more caution is needed due to high interest rate uncertainty [4][31][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Who is Driving the Market to Heat Up? - Market Performance: Affected by the tight - leaning monetary policy statements during the Two Sessions, long - term interest rates such as 10Y/30Y slightly increased. Ordinary credit bonds saw a decline in yields across all maturities due to buying pressure, with the spreads of ordinary credit bonds over 4Y slightly compressed. After a continuous decline, the secondary and perpetual bonds showed little change this week, and the credit spreads slightly widened [1][10]. - Buying Forces: Fund companies are the main buyers of non - financial credit bonds with maturities within 5 years, and other types of funds are the main buyers of ultra - long - term credit bonds with maturities over 5 years. The buying intensity of both is at a high level in recent years. The buying of 3 - 5Y ordinary credit bonds by fund companies is mainly driven by the position - building of amortized - cost bond funds. Other institutions are buying ordinary credit bonds in an above - seasonal manner, and it is speculated that wealth management products are still the main buying force [2][12][13]. - Pricing Ability: By comparing institutional buying and corresponding interest rate trends, it can be seen that funds still have strong marginal pricing ability, while the net buying of other institutions has a relatively weaker impact on credit bond pricing [17]. 3.2 Can the Medium - and Long - Term End Continue to Decline? - Yield Quantiles: Currently, the yield quantiles of credit bonds are at a relatively low level in history, especially for ordinary credit bonds with maturities of 2 years and less, whose yields are at an absolute historical low. The yield quantiles of medium - and long - term credit bonds are slightly higher due to the significantly higher medium - and long - term interest rates compared to 2025 [19][20]. - Term Spreads: The term spread quantiles of medium - and long - term credit bonds are significantly higher than the yield quantiles. There is still room for the term spreads of 10Y/1Y AAA medium - term notes to decline. However, it may be difficult to further compress the term spreads as the term spreads of medium - and long - term credit bonds are still at a high level, and the term spreads of credit bonds are difficult to move independently from those of treasury bonds [21][22][24]. 3.3 How to Participate? - Short - Term Bonds: It is recommended to seek certainty in short - term bonds. In the current situation of loose capital interest rates, which are likely to remain so in the future, the certainty of the short - end is still high. It is advisable to look for coupon income in credit bonds with a maturity of about 2 years [31]. - Secondary and Perpetual Bonds: After being driven by fixed - income plus funds earlier, the price ratio of secondary and perpetual bonds has recovered recently, but it is still necessary to wait appropriately. The reasonable price ratio range of 5 - year AAA - secondary bonds to 5Y AAA medium - term notes in March is 10 - 20bp [31]. - Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds: Although ultra - long - term credit bonds have performed strongly, more caution is needed due to high interest rate uncertainty. The trading volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has increased again this week, banks' net selling has slightly increased, credit spreads are hovering at the bottom, and the yield curve has touched the lower limit of 2 - standard - deviation again, all indicating bearish signals [34].