豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal futures, the mid - term trend is in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to the game between cost support and supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as the recovery of domestic oil mill operating rates, downstream aquaculture profit losses, rising imported soybean prices, and downstream feed companies' replenishment needs [6]. - For soybean oil futures, the mid - term trend is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the supply is becoming more abundant and the downstream consumption is slow to recover, the price is supported by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the expected strengthening of US biodiesel policies [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. The domestic oil mill operating rate has recovered, and the supply of soybean meal is becoming more abundant. However, downstream aquaculture profit losses lead to cautious purchases by feed companies, resulting in continuous light spot transactions. At the same time, imported soybean prices are rising, and downstream feed companies' rigid demand for replenishment supports the price [6]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 9th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 588,600 tons, the operating rate was 16.19%, and the soybean meal inventory was 701,200 tons [6]. - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to South American weather changes, US tariff policies, and domestic aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, and the funds were relatively bearish. The M2605 was expected to be in an oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2730 - 2900 [9]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, and the funds are slightly bearish. In the short term, under the transmission of cost support and geopolitical risk premiums, the M2605 may be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][22][25] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a relatively strong oscillation stage. Although the supply is becoming more abundant and the downstream consumption is slow to recover, the price is supported by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the expected strengthening of US biodiesel policies [29]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 9th week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 111,800 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 913,300 tons [29]. - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to US biodiesel policies, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Supported by geopolitical risk premiums and biodiesel policies, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. In the short term, the Y2605 may show a slightly stronger oscillation pattern. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and inventory destocking rhythms [32]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Under the emotional support of geopolitical conflicts and the expected US biodiesel policy, the Y2605 may be mainly in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran situation and crude oil price fluctuations [33]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, and weekly operating rate. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][48][50][56]