铜：地缘政治冲突引发金银大幅波动，铜价韧性凸显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global copper market will shift from a supply surplus to a supply shortage, with an expected supply gap of 150,000 tons. The price of copper is expected to rise, and the volatility will increase, with the price center moving upward [91][120]. - The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, and the competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense. The supply of electrolytic copper is expected to decline, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI fields is expected to maintain a high - growth rate [31][43][82]. - Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium of copper, and copper is expected to become an important asset for macro - funds to hedge against the credit risk of the US dollar [24][120]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Macro and Copper Market - Domestic Policy: The "Two Sessions" in 2026 maintained a stable and progressive tone. The GDP growth target was lowered to 4.5% - 5%, and the CPI target increase was 2%. The fiscal stimulus was slightly lower than expected, and the monetary policy was moderately loose. The policy was favorable for copper demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [10][12]. - US Economy: The US manufacturing industry is in an expansion cycle, with strong growth in new orders and production. The US is expected to enter a cycle of dual monetary and fiscal easing, and the capital expenditure in the technology industry will continue to be high, increasing the demand for copper [17][21]. - Geopolitical Conflicts: The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, causing significant fluctuations in the gold and silver markets. Copper prices are supported by strong fundamentals and have shown resilience. High oil prices have pushed up the US dollar index in the short term, but in the long term, they are beneficial for copper prices [24][28]. 3.2 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - Mine - end Supply: Global major mining companies have lowered their future production expectations. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to be further tightened, and the shortage situation is difficult to ease in the short term. The long - term supply of copper concentrates is affected by factors such as low growth rate, declining ore grade, and geopolitical risks [31][33][35]. - Domestic Smelting: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a record high. In 2026, the production is expected to decline slightly. The supply shortage of copper concentrates has not significantly restricted domestic smelting operations for the time being, but the long - term impact may gradually appear [40]. - Processing Fees: The long - term processing fees for copper concentrates have dropped to zero, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the supply shortage will gradually affect domestic smelting operations [43]. - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper raw materials have increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end has continued to rise, and the substitution effect on copper concentrates is expected to further increase in 2026 [46]. - Import and Export: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import and export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [49]. 3.3 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - Domestic Copper Products: In 2026, China's copper products output is expected to achieve double - digit growth. The output of refined copper rods is expected to increase by more than 10%, and the demand for copper foil is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. However, the demand for copper in the real estate and home appliance sectors is expected to be weak [54]. - New Energy and AI: The new energy field, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, will maintain high - speed growth, driving the demand for copper. The demand for copper in the AI field is expected to explode, and the combined demand for copper in new energy and AI is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [82]. - Power Grid Investment: In 2026, as the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the power grid investment is expected to achieve double - digit growth, with a total investment scale approaching one trillion yuan, which will strongly support the demand for copper [73]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - Global Inventory: In 2026, the global copper inventory has continued to increase, and the structural contradiction has been alleviated. The inventory accumulation is mainly due to the seasonal off - peak demand and the increase in supply. The market may be stocking up in advance in anticipation of future shortages, so the inventory increase will not have a negative impact on prices [87]. - Domestic Inventory: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has reached the highest level since 2019. The domestic destocking cycle is expected to start from late March to April [87]. 3.5 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of about 410,000 tons. In 2026, the market is expected to shift from a supply surplus to a supply shortage, with an expected supply gap of 150,000 tons [91]. 3.6 Copper Position Analysis - CFTC Position: As of March 3, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options decreased, and the net long position increased passively in February, indicating a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the futures market [99]. - LME Position: As of February 27, the long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased, and the bullish sentiment became more cautious [99]. 3.7 Arbitrage Analysis - Shanghai - London Ratio: In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it remained stable in February. In 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to further decline [104]. - Copper - Zinc Ratio: The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise in 2025 and 2026, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [104]. 3.8 Copper Option Market - Volatility Analysis: In January, the historical volatility of copper options rose to a nearly three - year high, and it was suitable to sell options. In February, the volatility decreased, and it was suitable to buy options. In the future, the volatility of copper prices is expected to increase, and it is recommended to construct strategies such as buying slightly out - of - the - money call options or buying straddles [109]. - PCR Ratio: The trading volume PCR and position PCR of copper options showed a downward trend in February and an upward trend at the beginning of March, indicating a relatively pessimistic expectation of the option market for copper prices [111]. 3.9 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technical Analysis: Technically, copper has broken through a nearly 20 - year shock range, and a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern has formed, indicating a high probability of a bullish trend [118]. - Market Outlook: In March 2026, the global copper market may experience a turning point, with increased volatility and an upward - moving price center. - Operation Suggestions: Downstream demanders are recommended to conduct long - hedging operations in the far - month contracts. Option strategies can consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options or constructing buying straddles to bet on increased volatility. The short - term support range for the main Shanghai copper contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [120].