鸡蛋：二季度蛋鸡在产存栏量有望同比转负：鸡蛋期货与期权2026年3月份报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, it's only a matter of time before the egg supply and demand return to re - balance as the production capacity is significantly reduced. The main pressure on the current egg - laying hens comes from the record - high replenishment volume between August 2024 and March 2025, and it's expected that the peak of this round of replenishment cycle will be completely cleared around June 2026. The new production pressure before May 2026 may be limited, and the high feed price after the Spring Festival in 2026 has led to a decrease in farmers' reluctance to cull chickens at high ages [3]. - From March to April 2026, the overall market liquidity is still very abundant, and the overall pressure on agricultural products is relieved. However, the near - term egg price is restricted by supply - demand pressure and is not sensitive to the macro - environment. It's difficult for the egg price to rise significantly before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. From May to June, both supply and demand are expected to improve significantly. The current egg futures price has fallen, and the premium of each contract to the spot has significantly converged. The 2604 and 2605 contracts may have room for rebound if farmers cull chickens more quickly and consumption recovers. The 07, 08, and 09 contracts are suspected of being over - valued, and the replenishment situation of farmers in March - April needs further observation [4]. - In trading, it's advisable to buy the 2605, 2606, and 2607 contracts near the breeding cost, and keep the 2608 and 2609 contracts on hold for the time being [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Agricultural Products and Eggs - In 2025, the agricultural product market fluctuated greatly. In January, the weakening of the US dollar led to a weak rebound of the domestic agricultural product index. In February, the external agricultural products continued to be strong. In March, the market showed a wide - range shock. In April, the Sino - US tariff escalation led to a collective decline in risk asset prices, and agricultural products were relatively resistant to decline but showed obvious differentiation. From August to September, the decline of the agricultural product sector expanded, and the breeding reached a new low. In October, the agricultural product index fell to the annual low. From January to March 2026, commodities as a whole rose sharply, and agricultural products also increased [6]. - In 2025, the large - scale decline in replenishment volume from October to December led to a premature rise of the far - month egg futures price to a high premium. From January to March 2026, the egg spot price did not rise beyond expectations, the far - month egg futures price oscillated and fell back to repair the excessive premium, but the continuous rise in feed price led to a rise in the egg price bottom [8]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the absolute price of eggs was not high, and the seasonal decline was lower than that of previous years. The price of small - sized eggs strengthened in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the current price difference has returned to the normal range [13][17]. 2. Supply and Demand of Eggs - There are great differences in the decline range of egg - laying hen存栏. The institutional data shows that the存栏 pressure was still large in February. The near - term supply pressure is still relatively large according to the monthly supply - demand data [31][32]. - The number of old chickens to be culled is gradually increasing (from October 2024 to April 2025 replenishment). The chick price has shown a seasonal rebound after a long - term low - level consolidation. The hatching profit has gradually returned to near the break - even point after being negative for a long time, and the hatching rate of breeding eggs is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [35][41][46]. 3. Chicken Culling and Breeding Profit - In 2025, the culling age of chickens rebounded after a low - level shock, and there was still a sentiment of delaying culling in the market. The overall culling volume of chickens in 2025 was slightly 1.1% lower than that in 2020, and the culling volume in the first quarter of 2026 decreased seasonally compared with the previous period [50][52]. - In March 2026, the loss amplitude of egg - laying hen breeding was close to that in the same period of 2021. After the sharp rise in corn price in March, the loss amplitude of egg - laying hens expanded again. This round of egg - laying hen loss time is relatively long, but the overall poultry breeding profit has rebounded from a low level [56][57][64]. 4. Egg Futures Situation - In March 2026, the futures position of eggs decreased from the historical high on a month - on - month basis. The ratio of the egg index to the corn index has gradually fallen to the historical low, and the price difference between the far and near months of the egg forward curve has converged [68][71][73]. - The 03 contract has fulfilled the post - Spring Festival spot low, and the basis between futures and spot has returned. The key to the 04/05/06 contracts lies in chicken culling, and the full cost of the industry is in the range of 3400 - 3500. The 07/08/09 contracts depend on the replenishment situation in the first quarter, and the current contract prices have a premium to the spot and breeding cost [75][78][81]. - The basis of near - month contracts is moderately strong, and the premium of far - month contracts is at a historical high level. The 5 - 9 spread in the first half of the year is prone to seasonal weakening. The egg 05 contract is prone to rise in April, and the current volatility of the egg futures price is generally high. Attention should be paid to whether the 2605 contract can form effective support near the breeding cost of 3300 - 3400 [87][90][93].