有色金属行业跟踪周报：能源价格上行催生输入性通胀担忧，贵金属价格回调-20260309

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 5.47% in the week from March 2 to March 6, ranking low among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 1.12%, industrial metals by 4.83%, new metal materials by 6.25%, minor metals by 6.88%, and energy metals by 9.22%. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to persist, leading to concerns about input inflation due to rising energy prices, which has resulted in a significant pullback in industrial metal prices. In the precious metals sector, the ongoing geopolitical risks and high energy prices have pressured prices down, although there is potential for gold prices to rise in the medium term due to a declining U.S. labor market and a "stagflation" economic backdrop [1][4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 5.47%, underperforming the index by 4.54 percentage points. Among the sub-sectors, precious metals, industrial metals, new metal materials, minor metals, and energy metals all recorded declines [13][19]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices weakened due to continued inventory accumulation and rising energy prices suppressing future demand. As of March 6, LME copper was priced at $12,869 per ton, down 3.21% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥101,050 per ton, down 2.76%. Supply disruptions from the Congo and Zambia border and high domestic copper inventory are expected to limit significant impacts on supply-demand dynamics [2][29][30]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum prices rose by 9.22% to $3,431 per ton, while SHFE aluminum increased by 3.69% to ¥24,715 per ton. The risk of production disruptions in the Middle East and Europe is increasing, with significant production capacity at risk due to natural gas supply issues [3][35]. - Zinc: Prices showed mixed results, with LME zinc at $3,323 per ton, up 0.45%, and SHFE zinc at ¥24,260 per ton, down 1.82%. Inventory levels fluctuated, with LME stocks decreasing and SHFE stocks increasing [37]. - Tin: Prices fell significantly, with LME tin at $50,050 per ton, down 13.78%, and SHFE tin at ¥393,660 per ton, down 13.15%. Supply recovery in Myanmar is expected to continue, but demand remains limited due to high price volatility [38]. Precious Metals - Precious metals prices declined, with COMEX gold at $5,181.30 per ounce, down 2.17%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,140.80 per gram, down 0.62%. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices have raised concerns about input inflation, impacting precious metal valuations [4][42][43].