有色金属行业报告（2026.3.2-2026.3.6）：中东冲突有望提振贵金属、铝、钨等价格中枢

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are expected to boost the price center for precious metals, aluminum, and tungsten. However, concerns over potential interest rate cuts may exert downward pressure on prices in the short term. The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold holdings, which is expected to enhance market confidence [3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to recession expectations linked to rising oil prices, despite a significant increase in the operating rate of domestic cable enterprises. The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize as downstream demand recovers [4] - Aluminum prices have shown a trend of upward movement, driven by supply disruptions from the Middle East and increased demand as businesses resume operations post-holiday. The report anticipates a gradual reduction in aluminum inventories as demand picks up [5] - Lithium prices have seen a significant decline, with market expectations for recovery in demand in the second quarter. However, there are mixed views on the long-term demand for lithium, influenced by external policy disruptions [6] - Tungsten prices have surged, driven by supply tightness and increased military demand due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. The report indicates that if conflicts persist, there could be substantial upward price potential for tungsten [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 9953.12, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 1.64%, while aluminum increased by 7.79%. Other metals like zinc and lead showed slight changes, with zinc up by 0.48% and lead down by 0.71%. Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down by 2.90% and silver down by 5.48% [22][23] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 42,479 tons and aluminum by 28,164 tons, while lead and tin experienced reductions in inventory [35][37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dongfang Tantalum, Xinjing Road, and Huaxi Nonferrous, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the sector [9]