铜周报：中东冲突持续，通胀担忧影响降息预期-20260309

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper futures showed a weak trend, oscillating downward within a high - level range. As of March 6, it closed at 101,050 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.76%. The ongoing war between the US - Israel and Iran led to a continuous increase in oil prices, raising global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year, strengthening the US dollar index, and suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the shortage at the mining end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fees for copper concentrates remain at historical lows. The production in March may reach a record high, while domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are under overall pressure [5]. - In the supply side, the shortage at the mining end persists, and the spot TC of copper concentrates remains low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant. The electrolytic copper production in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. In the demand side, copper foil and copper rod production have different trends, and the substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper is weakened. In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate significantly, while COMEX copper inventories start to decline. It is recommended to wait and see, closely monitor the war situation, global economic recession expectations, and inventory depletion progress [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies 3.1.1 Last Week's Market Review - The Shanghai copper futures trended weakly last week, closing at 101,050 yuan/ton on March 6, with a weekly decline of 2.76%. Geopolitical conflicts increased inflation expectations, reduced Fed rate - cut expectations, strengthened the US dollar, and pressured copper prices. The shortage at the mining end persisted, production might reach a record high in March, domestic inventories accumulated, and downstream demand increased after the price correction [5]. 3.1.2 Supply - side Situation - The shortage at the mining end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 485,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 56 dollars/ton, hitting a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates was abundant, with the southern domestic blister copper processing fee in February reaching 2,350 yuan/ton. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, and it is expected to increase in March [9][27]. 3.1.3 Demand - side Situation - The copper foil operating rate continued to rise, with a rate of 88.56% in January. The copper rod operating rate also increased, reaching 62.47% in the week from February 27 to March 5. The copper bar operating rate was affected by the Spring Festival, with a rate of 22.78% in February. The substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper was weakened [9][30]. 3.1.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 6, the SHFE copper inventory was 42.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The SMM national mainstream copper inventory on March 5 was 577,200 tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The LME copper inventory increased, while the COMEX copper inventory decreased [9][34]. 3.1.5 Strategy Suggestions - Geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices. The domestic social inventory continues to accumulate, and the global copper inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Although the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand has improved after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see, closely monitor the war situation, global economic recession expectations, and inventory depletion progress [9]. 3.2 Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning Situation 3.2.1 Premium and Discount - The decline in the Shanghai copper futures price stimulated downstream orders, and the spot discount gradually recovered. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper price difference remained low. The Shanghai copper is in a contango structure, and the inter - month price difference has narrowed [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of March 6, the Shanghai copper futures open interest was 195,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3.98%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 47.94% week - on - week. As of February 27, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 47.57% week - on - week. As of March 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased by 4.96% week - on - week [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - side - The shortage at the mining end has not been repaired, and the copper concentrate inventory is at a low level. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates is at a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper is abundant, and the electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in March [27]. 3.3.2 Downstream Operating Rates - The copper foil operating rate continued to rise, while the copper bar operating rate was affected by the Spring Festival. The refined copper rod operating rate increased significantly after the price correction, and the substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper was weakened [30]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, with the SHFE and LME inventories increasing, while the COMEX copper inventory has started to decline [34].