铝产业链周报-20260309

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positives outweigh the negatives, but it's not certain. It is recommended to have a long - biased allocation while controlling positions. Attention should also be paid to the development of the situation and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Domestic bauxite prices continue to fall, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton due to rising freight. Alumina operating capacity increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week to 44.716 million tons. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect aluminum production. The domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of an inflection point [3] 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices continue to decline. The theoretical cost difference between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants is large, and domestic ores are difficult to maintain in the long - term. Mines in Shanxi and Henan are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems are difficult to solve in the short - term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton. Although the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite is increasing, the ore price is still under pressure [8] 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change. The operating capacity was 93.7 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,673.6 yuan per ton, an increase of 13.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.309 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week. A large alumina plant in Hebei has its roasting end shut down, and it is accelerating the construction of roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan [11] 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.422 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.716 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect electrolytic aluminum production. New production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad, and some enterprises are restarting production or reducing production [20] 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the processing fee of aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [22] 08. Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [25][26][27][28] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 56.3%. Some previously shut - down enterprises have gradually resumed production, but the terminal demand recovery is average, and downstream procurement is mainly for small orders to meet rigid needs [31] 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [33][34][35][36] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 7.5% week - on - week to 44.5%, and that of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 69% [39][43] 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 6% week - on - week to 63%, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 4.6% week - on - week to 51.2% [47]