海运费推动外盘报价上涨，原木期货偏强看待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the spot price of logs continued to rise. The current quotation of the optimal deliverable 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to a futures price of 800 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation. The war between the US and Iran last week led to significant increases in chemicals and shipping, prompting New Zealand suppliers to raise their quotes to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³. Overall, the log futures price is expected to remain strong this week [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - The spot price of logs continued to rise after the Spring Festival. The 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine logs in Shandong are priced at 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ in the futures market, with a neutral valuation. The war between the US and Iran led to an increase in shipping and chemical prices, causing New Zealand suppliers to raise quotes, but it remains to be seen if domestic traders will accept them. The log futures price is expected to be strong this week [4]. - The main data shows an increase in futures prices, total inventory, and total positions, while the total outbound volume and New Zealand's weekly shipping volume decreased. The export profit, traders' import profit, and processing profit also declined [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures positions increased slightly. As of March 6, 2025, the total positions of log futures contracts were 11,535 lots, a 3.24% increase from the previous week, and the main contract positions were 7,605 lots, a 142% week - on - week increase [9]. - Log spot prices continued to rise. As of March 6, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 710/770/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 730/790/810 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 780/820/840 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Log Imports - In December 2025, China's total imports of coniferous logs were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total imports were about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. From New Zealand, the imports in December 2025 were about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total imports from New Zealand were about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. - In February 2026, 66 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a 10.81% month - on - month decrease, and the total arrival volume was about 1.2497 million cubic meters, a 25.08% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 28 were New Zealand logs, with an arrival volume of about 0.983 million cubic meters, accounting for 79%, a 26.23% month - on - month decrease. From February 28 to March 6, 2026, a total of 11 ships with 440,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters from the previous week [27]. 3.3.2 Trade Profits - As of March 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 117 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of 10 yuan/m³. Recently, due to the increase in shipping costs, some overseas quotes have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, but this price has not been accepted by domestic traders [32]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of February 27, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a 22.04% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, a 16.91% week - on - week increase. The North American log inventory was 240,000 cubic meters, a 140.00% week - on - week increase. The spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, an increase of 30,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 9.34% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 811,428 cubic meters, a 78.72% increase from the previous week [37]. 3.3.4 Outbound Volume - From February 23 to March 1, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 6,000 cubic meters, a 36.84% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 5,300 cubic meters, a 6.00% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 0 cubic meters, a 100.00% decrease from the previous week [41]. 3.3.5 Downstream - As of March 6, 2025, the price of wood squares in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was 1,310 yuan/m³, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/m³, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week [44]. - As of March 6, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease, and the Baltic Dry Index was 2,233, a 14.2% month - on - month increase [48].