南华期货生猪产业周报：现价破位下跌，政策托底信号频出-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the pig market last week was the significant divergence between the behaviors and expectations of upstream and downstream players under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The upstream breeding end accelerated concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival due to the general bearish sentiment towards the post - holiday market, leading to a continuous shift of post - holiday supply pressure. The downstream slaughter end faced the dilemma of the traditional off - season of terminal consumption, with low开工率 and weak ability to absorb supply, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand and a weak pig price [1]. - The near - term trading logic includes dismal post - holiday pork demand, the post - holiday window period for frozen pork inventory, the continuous narrowing of the standard - fat price difference, and whether second - round fattening farmers will enter the market when the price of standard pigs falls after the holiday [3]. - The long - term trading logic involves the expected policy - led continuous reduction of reproductive sow capacity and the pre - advancement of farmers' replenishment behavior, which has driven the month - on - month increase in piglet prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Upstream: Farmers accelerated concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival due to bearish sentiment. Although the average weight of large - scale farms increased after the holiday, the overall slaughter enthusiasm remained high, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs was abundant. The enthusiasm of second - round fattening farmers for replenishment decreased after the holiday, and the utilization rate of pens declined, weakening the short - term support for pig prices [1]. - Downstream: The terminal consumption entered the traditional off - season. The开工率 of slaughter enterprises gradually recovered but remained at a low level, the daily slaughter volume decreased significantly compared with before the holiday, and the procurement was smooth. Slaughter enterprises faced high profit pressure, which hindered the increase of purchase prices and开工 rates, and they lacked the willingness to store large - scale frozen products [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - Base - spread strategy: The current pig base - spread is neutral, and it is recommended to continue to wait and see [9]. - Calendar - spread strategy: For the calendar - spread strategy, one can choose to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 07 contract [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: The pig price will fluctuate at a low level. The main contract will oscillate in the range of 11,000 - 12,500 [12]. - Unilateral strategy: For the main 05 contract of pigs, one can choose to sell the call option LH2605 - C - 12800 [12]. - Risk management strategies for pig enterprises: Different strategies are provided according to different scenarios, such as shorting pig futures to lock in profits, selling call options, buying put options, etc. [13] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: On March 3, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture jointly convened a special meeting with 7 leading pig enterprises, proposing to further reduce the inventory of reproductive sows to about 36.5 million, a decrease of nearly 10% compared with the end of 2025. The annual production filing management for leading enterprises has been officially implemented. Muyuan Group has actively responded to capacity regulation, reducing the inventory of reproductive sows from 3.62 million in 2025 to 3.13 million in January this year. On March 4, 2026, Huachu Network announced a central reserve frozen pork rotation purchase and storage transaction of 10,000 tons [14]. - Negative information: As of March 5, the average weight of slaughtered pigs in the country rose to 128.15 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 kg, and 5.38 kg higher than the same period in 2024. The proportion of large pigs over 150 kg increased to 4.37%, indicating that the problem of large - pig backlog has not been solved, and the actual supply pressure is greater. This week, the pig price continued to decline. As of March 6, the national average pig price fell to 10.29 - 10.56 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decline of 3.39% - 4.72% [14][15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the inventory of reproductive sows, the average weight of slaughtered pigs, and the changes in the pig - grain ratio [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation This week, the main 05 contract of pigs opened at 11,485 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 11,160 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 325 points or 2.83%. The open interest was 173,000 contracts, an increase of 17,939 contracts compared with last week. The pig market is in a continuous bottom - exploring stage [18]. 3.3.2 Base - spread and Calendar - spread Structure Analysis - Calendar - spread structure: The pig calendar - spread structure is in a Contango structure. The main reason is that the pig demand this week was dismal, falling short of expectations, the spot price declined, and the overall inventory still needs long - term bottom - grinding and de - stocking. Whether the peak season can boost demand remains to be seen [20]. - Base - spread structure: As the second - round fattening pigs were gradually slaughtered, the market supply increased. Although the slaughter volume of the slaughter end increased, it had little impact compared with the increase in supply. The average weight of large - scale farms increased after a previous decline, and the base - spread of the near - month contract increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Profit tracking of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain: With the decline of the pig price this week, the pig breeding profit decreased, and the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig continued to decline, resulting in losses. Due to farmers' optimism about the future pig price, the enhanced replenishment willingness in the early stage promoted the continuous rise of piglet prices, and the gross profit increased month - on - month compared with last week. In terms of second - round fattening, although the standard - fat price difference strengthened this week, it was still negative, and the demand for large pigs was better than that for standard pigs. Early second - round fattening farmers slaughtered and realized profits. In terms of slaughter, as the white - hair price difference weakened, the profit of slaughter enterprises decreased [24]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Reproductive sows: The inventory data of reproductive sows from Steel Union decreased slightly month - on - month but remained generally stable, and the elimination of reproductive sows was less than expected. The PSY level decreased by 0.2 month - on - month, and the average price of eliminated sows decreased month - on - month [29]. - Pigs: In 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises remained at a high level, and the inventory was at a three - year high. This week, the average slaughter weight remained stable [32]. - Piglets: The piglet price was relatively low compared with the same period last year, showing a seasonal upward trend. This week, the gross profit of piglets recovered and was close to the break - even cost line [34]. - Second - round fattening: The standard - fat price difference strengthened this week, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens decreased [37]. - Feed: The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the feed price remained stable this week [39]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Situation - Slaughter situation: The current slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises is at a high level in recent years. The slaughter profit of pig slaughter enterprises has weakened, the cold - storage inventory has gradually increased, and the inventory demand has gradually started. Due to the strong willingness of farmers to hold back sales and support prices, the stocking willingness of slaughter enterprises has weakened. This week, the slaughter profit decreased month - on - month, and the average weight after slaughter did not change significantly [43]. - Terminal situation: The terminal consumption situation remained weak. The fresh - sales rate of slaughter enterprises was at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally, and the white - hair price difference was the worst in the same period [46]. 3.5.3 Import and Export Situation - Import situation: The import volume is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [52]. - Export situation: The export volume is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [55]. 3.5.4 Cost - Profit Situation - The pig breeding profit decreased, and the pig - grain ratio is also at a certain level. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the cost of meat production also showed certain changes [58][60].