贵金属：中东局势加剧金银市场波动，中长期上行逻辑未改

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying logic of the current precious metals bull market is global de - dollarization, and this logic remains intact. Long - term funds are not sensitive to short - term price fluctuations, and short - term price drops may stimulate more buying, building a solid bottom [86]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metals prices since the end of January is a healthy technical correction in the long - term bull market, not a trend inflection point or the end of the bull market. After the leverage returns to a reasonable level, prices will re - anchor to fundamentals [86]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, causing the US dollar index to approach 100. In the context of a significant increase in inflation expectations, the attractiveness of precious metals as non - interest - bearing assets has declined, resulting in short - term price pressure and increased volatility [86]. - The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds will continue to decline, which is beneficial to precious metals. The Fed's balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [86]. - The US dollar is likely to enter a medium - to - long - term downward channel due to factors such as the decline in the US's global control ability, the challenges to its hegemony, and the out - of - control debt scale [86]. - The fundamentals support the rise of silver prices. The supply - demand contradiction of silver cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, and the price increase elasticity of silver is expected to be stronger than that of gold, with room for further downward adjustment of the gold - silver ratio [86]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In early 2026, the global gold market accelerated its rise, with London gold breaking through the $5000 mark and reaching nearly $5600. Then, it experienced an epic plunge, with a two - day decline of over $1000 at the end of January. The direct cause was Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman, and the deeper reason was the liquidity crisis caused by the stampede of highly leveraged funds [13]. - In early February, there was a short - term technical rebound, followed by a callback. After the Spring Festival, due to Trump's additional 15% tariff and the tense situation in the Middle East, gold prices rose again. At the end of February, due to the military strike on Iran by the US and Israel, gold prices first rose rapidly and then fell back [13]. - Despite the sharp adjustment since the end of January, the cumulative increase of gold in early 2026 was nearly 20%, continuing the bull market in 2025 and remaining one of the best - performing global assets [13]. Silver - In January, the silver market had an epic rally, driven by factors such as de - dollarization, risk - aversion sentiment, and potential risks in overseas deliveries. However, at the end of January, it experienced a record - breaking one - day decline, mainly due to the liquidity crisis caused by the stampede of highly leveraged funds [15]. - In early February, there was a short - term rebound, followed by a significant callback. After the Spring Festival, silver prices rose again, but at the end of February, the CME's "technical glitch" caused the silver price to turn from rising to falling. The risk of a short - squeeze in March was temporarily relieved [15]. - In February, the cumulative increase in silver prices was almost zero, with a significant decrease in volatility compared to January. The market showed signs of stabilization, but volatility increased again in March. The physical inventory of silver is rapidly decreasing, and the global silver market is expected to have a supply gap for the sixth consecutive year in 2026 [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Middle East Conflict and Market Reaction - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a significant rise and then a fall in the precious metals market. The rise in oil prices put pressure on global risk assets, and the precious metals market initially rose due to its safe - haven property. As the conflict expanded, concerns about the Fed's future interest - rate cut path and the rise in the US dollar index put pressure on precious metals [20]. - The US's series of geopolitical actions have increased global risk - aversion demand, driving up precious metal prices. The risk of the US economy falling into stagflation has increased, which is beneficial to gold [20]. Impact of High Oil Prices - The US - Israel attack on Iran led to a rise in oil prices and the US dollar index. In the short term, it was negative for gold and silver, but in the long term, it meant a further decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds and an increase in inflation expectations, which was beneficial to precious metals [21]. Change in the Pricing Logic of Precious Metals - Historically, the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds was the underlying framework for judging gold prices. However, since 2023, the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has risen together with gold, and the traditional pricing logic is changing. The US's debt, deficit, and the impairment of the US dollar's credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold [23]. Global De - dollarization - The US dollar index has been declining since 2025, and the global trend of de - dollarization is accelerating. Central banks around the world have been increasing their gold holdings, and the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60% [26]. Weakening of the Safe - haven Attributes of the US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds - The US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which were once considered safe - haven assets, have begun to show the characteristics of risky assets. In contrast, the safe - haven attributes of gold and silver have emerged [30]. Expansion of US Treasury Bond Scale - The scale of US Treasury bonds is expanding uncontrollably, leading to a diversion of global risk - aversion funds to precious metals and other assets. If only 1% of foreign holders of US Treasury bonds transfer their funds to gold, the international gold price is expected to exceed $6000 per ounce [32]. Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is in a downward cycle, and it is expected to remain weak and decline in the next five years. A decline in the US dollar index will push up the price of gold [37]. US Stock Market and Precious Metals - The US stock market has shown signs of weakness since the beginning of 2026. If the over - valuation of the US stock market cannot be sustained, funds are expected to flow into the precious metals market [38]. US Economic Situation - The US economic growth rate has slowed down, and the risk of stagflation has increased. Inflation remains above the target value, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is expected to decline, which is beneficial to precious metals [41][44]. Fed's Independence and Policy Expectations - Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence has affected the precious metals market. Although Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman was unexpected, it is difficult to change the Fed's expectation of continuing to cut interest rates, and the Fed's balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [45]. Redefinition of Gold and Silver - Gold and silver are being redefined as anti - inflation and risky assets. Their volatility has increased, and they have become an important part of global asset allocation. In the long term, they have the ability to resist inflation [48]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached 863 tons, remaining at a high historical level but with a slower pace compared to the previous three years. In January 2026, central bank gold purchases were significantly lower than the monthly average in 2025. Some central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, and global de - dollarization is expected to continue, making central bank gold purchases a fundamental demand for gold [53]. Gold Investment Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand being the main driving force. Gold investment demand increased significantly, while jewelry demand declined in volume but increased in value. In 2026, the relaxation of investment regulations in India may bring more funds to the precious metals market [56]. Silver Supply - The supply of silver is rigidly constrained. The growth of mineral silver and recycled silver is limited, and the supply elasticity of the silver mining end is small. In 2026, the growth rate of silver supply is expected to be about 1.5% [59]. Silver Demand - Industrial demand accounts for nearly 60% of total silver demand. In 2025, total silver demand decreased slightly, and in 2026, it is expected to remain basically unchanged. The AI field will be an important source of incremental demand for silver [63]. Silver Supply - Demand Gap - The silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, and it is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and the available inventory is extremely limited, which is beneficial to the rise of silver prices [66]. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. Currently, the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, lower than the historical normal level. If the monetary attribute of silver returns, the gold - silver ratio may fall below 20 [67][68]. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - As of March 3, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold decreased, while the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, increased. For silver, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX decreased, and the holdings of SLV increased. The spot market for both gold and silver is more optimistic than the futures market [72][76]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to try to buy gold and silver on dips. For Shanghai silver, the first support range is 19,000 - 20,000 yuan per kilogram, and the upper pressure range is 24,000 - 25,000 yuan per kilogram. For Shanghai gold, the first support range is 1050 - 1100 yuan per gram, and the upper pressure range is 1250 - 1300 yuan per gram. In the options market, one can try to buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options on gold and silver [85]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metals prices is a healthy technical correction. The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains unchanged, and the market is expected to start a new round of upward cycle as risk - aversion sentiment intensifies [86].