碳酸锂周报：南美供应增加，价格延续震荡-20260309

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply side has some uncertainties, such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports by the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines, and the ongoing disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, with a 17.6% month - on - month decrease in February production. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of lithium carbonate was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The demand side is in a pattern of strong supply and demand, with an overall increase in production scheduling in March. The inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state this week. Considering the above factors, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - side Situation - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, and the production in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium carbonate in December was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 55% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - side Situation - In March, the overall production scheduling increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. In January, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%. The total export of power and energy - storage batteries was 24.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.0% and a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. The sales volume of power and energy - storage batteries was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The new - energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new - energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state. The factory inventory decreased by 4,970 tons, the market inventory increased by 6,002 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 2,131 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Suggestions - Considering the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses, and the subsequent import of South American lithium salts is expected to supplement the supply. On the demand side, the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. The suspension of exports by Zimbabwe and the risks in Yichun's mining licenses have led to concerns about supply disturbances. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center has shifted upwards. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, the shipment of South American lithium salts increases, and the inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. With both supply and demand increasing, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot - price trend of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade), monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in February 2026, difference between domestic power - battery production and loading volume, production of lithium iron phosphate, production of ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type), import volume of lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) [9][10][13][15][19][20][22][25][26][28][32][34][39][40].