GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-09 06:38Group 1 - The report suggests an overweight allocation in crude oil due to the rapid deterioration of geopolitical situations in the Middle East, which is expected to boost oil prices temporarily [1][20][18] - It recommends an overweight allocation in A-shares and H-shares, citing the expansion of fiscal deficits and supportive economic policies as key drivers for market risk appetite [18][21] - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global inflation expectations, leading to a preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [20][19][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of marginal convergence but is not in a recession, with a moderate cooling in the labor market and wage growth, which may lead to a decrease in endogenous inflation [19][21] - It emphasizes the importance of structural monetary policies in enhancing the demand for government bonds, despite existing imbalances in financing needs and credit supply [19][21] - The report notes that the global order is rapidly restructuring, with the U.S. losing credibility due to its hegemonic policies, which further supports the case for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [20][19]