黄金、白银期货品种周报-20260309

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Gold futures are in an upward trend, which may be near the end. Short - term is expected to be weak and volatile, while geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying demand provide long - term support [7]. - The Shanghai Silver futures are also in an upward trend close to the end. Short - term may continue to be weak and volatile, and global supply - demand gap and industrial demand support a mid - term structural bull market [31][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis: The Shanghai Gold futures are in an uptrend nearing the end. Last week, it rose due to geopolitical conflicts but then was suppressed by a strong dollar and inflation concerns. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations cooled, and the dollar index remained high. Market structure is divided, with reduced willingness to chase long positions and a 28.2% drop in settled funds. Short - term is expected to be weak and volatile, with support at 1120 yuan/gram. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying demand provide long - term support. The mid - term strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. - Variety Trading Strategy: - Last Week's Strategy Review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 was expected to run strongly at a high level, with pressure at 1200 - 1220 yuan/gram and support at 1080 - 1100 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The Shanghai Gold contract 2606 is expected to oscillate at a high level, with pressure at 1200 - 1220 yuan/gram and support at 1080 - 1100 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. - Related Data Situation: The report presents data on the Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, dollar index, dollar - off - shore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Silver Futures - Mid - term Market Analysis: The Shanghai Silver futures are in an uptrend nearing the end. Last week, the Shanghai Silver 2606 contract fluctuated sharply with a 10.8% weekly decline. It rose due to geopolitical conflicts and a 15.3% drop in domestic inventory, but then was suppressed by macro factors. In the short - term, it may continue to be weak and volatile, with support at 20,800 yuan/kg. In the mid - term, the global supply - demand gap and industrial demand support a structural bull market. The mid - term strategy is to wait and see [31][33][34]. - Variety Trading Strategy: - Last Week's Strategy Review: The Silver contract 2604 was expected to run strongly at a high level, with pressure at 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/kg and support at 18,000 - 21,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [37]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The Silver contract 2604 is expected to oscillate at a high level, with pressure at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/kg and support at 18,000 - 21,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [38]. - Related Data Situation: The report presents data on the Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]