中东炮声隆，黑色系商品为何反应平淡？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US - Israel bombing of Iran, international crude oil prices have risen by over 30%, and Shanghai crude oil prices have risen by over 50%, but the performance of black - series commodities has been flat. The main reasons are inventory accumulation, small imports of Iranian iron ore, and black - series commodities being used as short - side allocations by arbitrage funds. Mid - term trading opportunities for black - series commodities include basis regression of rebar and potential catch - up rallies when arbitrage funds unwind, as well as potential price increases driven by rising crude oil prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Black - series Commodity Inventory - The inventory of black - series commodities is at a high level and increasing. The total inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and port iron ore is at a high level, with port iron ore inventory and port trade ore inventory hitting record highs, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils also reaching a record high. The total inventory of the five major steel products is approaching 20 million tons and is still increasing. It is expected that the peak of the total steel inventory in this cycle will be around 22 million tons [3][7][11]. Impact of the Middle East War Situation - The impact of the Middle East war situation is mainly on the energy and chemical sectors, and the impact on black - series commodities is relatively small. Since the US - Israel bombing of Iran on February 28, crude oil prices have risen significantly, but the driving effect on black - series commodities is limited. China's imports of iron ore from Iran are relatively limited, and the interruption of Iranian iron ore supply has little impact on the overall supply [12][13]. Black - series Commodities as Short - side Allocations - Black - series commodities have become short - side allocation varieties. Due to high inventory, weak demand, and weak expectations, black - series commodities lack upward drivers, so they are used as short - side allocations by arbitrage funds and other funds [14][15]. Future Market Opportunities - In the short term, there are no good trading opportunities for black - series commodities. In the medium term, there are three main long - side trading opportunities: the basis regression of rebar, a potential catch - up rally when funds using black - series commodities as short - side allocations unwind, and a potential upward trend driven by a significant and long - term increase in crude oil prices [16][19].