碳酸锂再度尝试冲高，现货买盘仍在等待价值区间

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 6, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 156,160 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the basis weakened to 640 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 31.91% from the previous day [1][34][35]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: On March 6, 2026, the open interest expanded to 333,903 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots or 0.46% from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank to 228,224 lots, a decrease of 72,281 lots or 24.05% from the previous day [1][36][37]. *** Industry Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: On March 6, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,600 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased to 73.46%, down 12.26 percentage points from the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers ended maintenance but were reluctant to sell and eager to hold up prices, with weak willingness to sell spot orders. Overseas mines held up prices, resulting in light overall trading [2][28][38]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials slightly declined, with ternary materials dropping to 182,050 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate dropping to 54,810 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles from February 1 - 8 increased year - on - year, the sales volume in the first quarter fell short of expectations, affecting the procurement rhythm of downstream battery cell manufacturers. Material manufacturers showed strong procurement willingness and increased production schedules, and were eager to replenish stocks when prices corrected, but overall, they were cautious and mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach, with light actual trading [2][31][39]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory of lithium carbonate slightly decreased to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% from the previous week, indicating slow inventory depletion. Warehouse receipt data were not directly provided, but the inventory decrease might reflect a reduction in warehouse receipt pressure [2][31][40]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering despite the decline, and the reluctance of upstream producers to sell supports prices. On the demand side, although new energy vehicle sales are growing, they fall short of expectations, and downstream procurement is cautious with limited restocking demand. The inventory is slightly decreasing but the depletion speed is slow. The overall market shows a supply - demand game with a lack of a clear directional driver [3][31][41]