纯苯及苯乙烯：成本支撑叠加炼厂降幅，提振价格走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost - end oil price is expected to remain strong before the geopolitical situation eases. If the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price will give back some of the previous gains, but the overall operating center will be higher than before. The pure benzene supply and demand are expected to contract slightly, mainly driven by cost and geopolitics in the short - term. The benzene - ethylene supply - demand margin improves, and it may be strong before the geopolitical situation eases [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - In February, the oil price fluctuated strongly. In the first half of the month, it rebounded due to geopolitical factors, and in the second half, it maintained a strong adjustment. In March, it rose significantly due to geopolitical risks. Looking forward, if the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price will give back some gains but the operating center will be higher; if it continues to ferment, the oil price will remain strong [13]. Pure Benzene - In February, pure benzene fluctuated widely. The demand weakened during the Spring Festival, but the price rose after the festival due to the increase in oil price. In early March, the price increased with the rise in oil price. The February output was 1.83 million tons, a 4.99% month - on - month decrease and a 9.65% year - on - year increase. The supply is expected to contract slightly in the future. The demand improved slightly in February but is expected to weaken slightly later. The port inventory remained high and is expected to adjust slightly at a high level [6][18][26]. - The pure benzene import volume in December was 537,200 tons, a 16.87% month - on - month increase and a 3.78% year - on - year increase. The 2025 import dependence was 17.7%, a 3 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The main import regions are South Korea, Brunei, and Thailand. Geopolitical conflicts may affect the import volume [32]. Benzene - Ethylene - In February, benzene - ethylene fluctuated and adjusted. Before the festival, the demand decreased and the supply increased, but it adjusted after the festival due to the rise in oil price. In early March, the price increased significantly with the rise in oil price. The February output was 1.4647 million tons, a 5.35% month - on - month decrease and a 4.18% year - on - year increase. The supply is expected to contract in the future. The profit margin decreased slightly in February, and it is expected to first decrease and then increase. The port inventory was 200,400 tons as of February 25th, and it is expected to first increase and then decrease [8][42][45]. - The December import volume was 16,900 tons, a 10.42% month - on - month decrease and a 67.64% year - on - year decrease. The 2025 import dependence was 1.32%. Geopolitical factors may affect the supply through cost - end transmission [55][57]. Downstream Products of Benzene - Ethylene - In 2026, there are new production plans for EPS, ABS, and PS. For EPS, the total planned production capacity is 1.18 million tons; for ABS, it is 1.01 million tons; for PS, it is 370,000 tons [59][60][61]. Related Consumer Goods - In December, the output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, a 2.36% year - on - year decrease; the output of air - conditioners was 21.6289 million units, an 8.72% year - on - year decrease; the output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, an 11.35% year - on - year increase; the output of automobiles was 3.4115 million vehicles, a 2.49% year - on - year decrease [70][73].