宏观经济专题：建筑需求转暖，韩国越南AI产业链出口强劲

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a mixed seasonal performance, with overall activity remaining acceptable[2] - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating rates at historical highs for the lunar period[2] - Construction demand is recovering faster than in 2025, although appliance sales remain weak compared to the same period[3] Prices - International commodity prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices increasing sharply[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the South China Industrial Index showing robust performance[4] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have seen a decline recently[65] Real Estate - New housing transactions have shown a year-on-year increase, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down 48.6% compared to the previous period, but up 18% and 22% compared to 2024 and 2025 respectively[5] - Second-hand housing prices have declined, with transaction volumes in major cities showing mixed results compared to 2025[71] Exports - AI product exports from South Korea and Vietnam continue to show strong growth, with expectations for China's AI exports to remain robust[6] - China's export market may benefit from rising energy prices, leveraging cost advantages in coal and new energy sectors[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.41% as of March 6[78] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 19,748 million yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[81] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[85]