KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-09 07:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery process will involve four stages: restoring central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, with a predicted price range of 800-860 CNY/ton for thermal coal [4][15] - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to continue influencing coal prices, with potential upward pressure on prices if tensions persist [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise due to the restoration of long-term contracts and the profit-sharing mechanism between coal and power companies. The ideal target price for 2025 is around 750 CNY/ton, with a potential peak at 860 CNY/ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, suggesting target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different scenarios [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends for coal stocks, with four main lines of investment: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][16] Key Market Indicators - As of March 7, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 743 CNY/ton, a slight decrease from the previous week. The long-term contract price for thermal coal has seen a minor increase to 682 CNY/ton [22][23] - The report notes a significant increase in coal mine operating rates in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, indicating improved supply conditions [22][23]