宏观周报（3月第1周）：美伊冲突持续推动通胀预期抬头-20260309

Market Overview - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is raising inflation expectations, impacting global capital markets and leading to a decline in equity markets[1] - The average daily trading volume last week was 2,644.6 billion CNY, down by 204.3 billion CNY from the previous week[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.22%[3] Economic Indicators - February's manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 percentage points, aligning with seasonal trends and holiday effects[3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for February showed a decrease of 92,000 jobs, marking the second month of negative growth since 2020, against an expected increase of 59,000 jobs[3] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3%[3] Fixed Income Market - The yield curve for bonds steepened last week, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.8% and the 30-year yield to 2.25%[3] - The central bank's liquidity operations reflect a "peak-shaving and valley-filling" approach, maintaining a loose monetary stance[3] Global Market Trends - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 3.01% and the S&P 500 by 2.02%[3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.34%, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar[3] - Oil prices surged by 36.18%, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, contributing to inflation concerns[3] Risk Factors - There is a heightened risk of geopolitical tensions exceeding expectations, which could adversely affect market stability[3] - The potential for underwhelming economic fundamentals at the beginning of the year poses additional risks[3]